On Wednesday, the price of electricity is set to rise by 4% to 282.12 euros per megawatt hour (MWh). The gas price ceiling adjustment will be paid by consumers through the wholesale market results, known as the pool, to compensate plants that rely on natural gas. This move follows the ongoing mechanism designed to manage gas usage and electricity costs across the Iberian Peninsula (Source: OMIE and national energy regulators).
With these figures, the daytime electricity cost will be about 14 euros cheaper than the 296.19 euros per MWh that would apply if the gas market remained uncapped in the first week of operations across the Iberian market (Source: Iberian pool data).
Wednesday marks the highest price since March 11, when prices reached 284.58 euros per MWh, surpassing the level the gas cap was intended to limit (Source: energy market reports).
Since the gas-cap mechanism began influencing the pool auction, which helps determine a portion of the rate consumers pay, the average price in electricity markets has hovered around 243.86 euros per MWh. This reflects the ongoing alignment between wholesale costs and consumer tariffs (Source: OMIE pool announcements).
Without the protective adjustment, the price during this period would rise to around 274.5 euros per MWh, roughly 31 euros higher. This reflects the impact of higher gas use when demand spikes during heat waves, which boosts the output of gas-fired combined-cycle plants (Source: energy market analyses).
Geopolitical tensions with Russia add another layer of concern. Some analysts note that the price movements in Spain are affected by how the mechanism interacts with exports and international gas flows, including shipments to France and beyond (Source: energy analysts and trade groups).
According to the electricity employers association AELEC, since the gas price cap took effect, imports from France have declined to near-zero in certain hours, a trend anticipated to continue as the pool remains the cheapest option in the Iberian market (Source: AELEC reports).
On the international front, authorities in Sweden issued a preemptive warning about possible natural gas supply disruptions in response to similar measures being considered in Northern Europe after reduced Russian deliveries via routes such as the Nord Stream 1 pipeline (Source: national energy agencies).
In addition, Gazprom paused pumping through the TurkStream pipeline for a period tied to maintenance, impacting gas supply to Turkey and several southern European countries (Source: Gazprom announcements).
Looking across the continent, electricity prices remain elevated in Western Europe. In France, for instance, prices could reach around 383.14 euros per MWh the following day, with peaks exceeding 400 euros during much of the day (Source: European energy market data).
Italy faces similar trends with average prices near 368.07 euros per MWh, Germany around 323.34 euros, and the United Kingdom about £202.43 per MWh, which translates to roughly 236 euros depending on exchange rates (Source: regional market observations).
Portugal, subject to the Iberian exception that caps natural gas-related costs, will align its pricing with Spain, ensuring market stability across the Iberian peninsula (Source: Iberian energy policy updates).
Auction and setup
Based on the wholesale market auction results, electricity is forecast to rise by 3.2% to 152.75 euros per MWh, up from 148.03 euros for the start of the summer period. This projection reflects the forward plan for next-day pricing across the pool (Source: OMIE auction results).
In time zones, the late-evening peak is expected between 22:00 and 23:00, when prices could reach 195.66 euros per MWh, with a trough around 132.66 euros per MWh between 18:00 and 19:00 (Source: pool time-slot data).
Nevertheless, these numbers must be added to the gas-power plant adjustments, which vary with volume and the system’s price. This adjustment is passed through to households and eligible businesses (Source: pool adjustment mechanisms).
The average adjustment for consumers for tomorrow is anticipated to be 129.37 euros per MWh (Source: OMIE publishings within an hour of setting the pool price).
If these figures are implemented, the MWh price with the gas-cost adjustment will be about 4.42% higher than 270.17 euros, which corresponds to the price level before accounting for the latest daily adjustments (Source: OMIE price disclosures).