Emmanuel Macron had been one of the most influential voices in Europe. As president of France, the second-largest economy in the euro area and the rotating bloc chair of the European Union, he helped shape early responses to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. His support, coupled with the French presidency of the Council of the EU in those months, positioned him as a central figure in Brussels since 2019, notably in backing Ursula von der Leyen for the European Commission presidency, a move that helped Christine Lagarde secure the presidency of the European Central Bank and reinforced Macron’s role on the continental stage.
Yet the political winds have shifted for the figure at the head of Europe’s liberal camp. In the meetings of the 27 heads of state and government to begin carving up the EU’s power lines—first in an informal dinner on June 17 and later in the Council on the 27th and 28th—Macron will enter with weakened standing and a mind focused on the National Assembly elections scheduled for June 30. His political clout has waned, and this is plainly understood by those in the room. His liberal party, Renaissance, has suffered a crushing setback as the conservative far-right surge of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally overtook them in votes and seats: 30 seats for the far-right compared to 13 for the social-liberal side.
The outlook looks even bleaker for the Spanish liberals. Ciudadanos has vanished from the European Parliament, losing all seven of their MEPs, which effectively marks political extinction for the party.
Thus, the Renew Europe group has slipped from 102 to 79 seats in the Parliament, the biggest drop of these elections. Twenty-three seats, nearly a quarter, vanished, leaving the liberals at a vulnerable footing in the power-sharing corridor.
“They will face greater difficulty securing a top job in the post-2024 five-year distribution of roles,” argues Héctor Sánchez Margalef, a researcher at CIDOB, in conversation with a national newspaper. “Until now, leadership roles were distributed across three families of parties, with Charles Michel serving as liberal president of the European Council. The logical outcome now is that social democrats will secure one of the top spots, and the PPE will take the other two.”
Beyond the presidency of the Council, there is also the election of the president of the European Parliament and of the European Commission, along with the selection of commissioners who form a body reminiscent of a European cabinet with broad powers.
In any case, the odds suggest that liberals will remain a key factor in the governance of the Union’s next five-year term. The sum of 185 seats for the European People’s Party (EPP) and 137 for the socialists and democrats (S&D) tallies to 322, far short of the 361-seat majority needed to advance the presidency of the Commission, the commission college, or EU-wide laws.
It is natural to expect the liberal bloc to rely on the 79 seats they currently hold, which would place a broad pro-European majority around 401 seats. The PPE could be tempted to align with far-right forces on specific dossiers or to court the Greens with their 53 MEPs on targeted issues. Yet the center is likely to retain influence, despite the drop in liberal strength.
Dinámicas internas
Why such a collapse for liberal forces? “This is a question historians might ponder more than political scientists: how can a liberal party be sustainable in Spain?” notes Sánchez Margalef. “Anyone willing to launch a new liberal project should shift a bit to the left or right.”
Across Europe, the same drift is visible. Ciudadanos in Spain moved decisively to the right, helping to build conservative majorities in Brussels on issues affecting Spain, though that may not translate as easily in the new European Parliament. Following Ciudadanos’ disappearance, the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) remains the sole Spanish member of Renew Europe, holding a single seat with Oihane Agirregoitia as the lone Spanish monarch within the liberal family.
Belgian results add another layer. Prime Minister Alexander De Croo announced his resignation after a political setback for the liberal Open VLD, which finished fifth in Flanders and lost ground in both federal and European elections. “Liberal forces are strong and will return,” he proclaimed in a farewell address.
Nevertheless, the liberal bloc in Valonia, the Francophone region of Belgium, managed to gain ground through its sister party Mouvement Réformateur, capturing nearly 30% of votes and 20 seats, six more than before.
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