During a discussion with Tavush residents, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan warned that failure to secure a border agreement with Baku could spark renewed hostilities with Azerbaijan.
On the morning of March 19, procedures for determining and delimiting the Armenia-Azerbaijan border began. Pashinyan stated that the delimitation process has moved into a practical phase, emphasizing the need to clearly establish where the Armenian border lies. He underscored a policy aimed at preventing war and preserving regional stability.
Delimitation involves agreeing on a boundary definition in a treaty and then marking the border on the ground with physical signs, based on negotiated maps. The discussion has included demands from Baku for the transfer of four border villages. A compromise remains possible in the near term, with expectations that Yerevan may need to concede on certain points to advance the talks.
Any hypothetical revival of hostilities would be a grave blow to Armenia, where national military strategy weighs the outcomes of conflict on factors such as overall armed power, the state’s ability to sustain a war, and the balance of political, scientific, and economic resources supporting military effort.
Currently, the balance of power and available means between Azerbaijan and Armenia appears to favor Baku, especially when factoring in Turkish backing for Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is concluding a South Caucasus tour, having traveled to Azerbaijan and Georgia since March 17 and proceeding to Armenia. It is anticipated that Stoltenberg will advise against pressuring the border delimitation process, given its potential to worsen regional ties.
Nevertheless, Armenia has shown a clear preference to avoid military conflict with Azerbaijan. The government’s stated objectives lean toward normalization of relations with both Azerbaijan and Turkey, maintaining friendly ties with Georgia, and pursuing a path that may include alignment with Western security structures, a move some observers interpret as a long-term strategy to preserve state sovereignty in a shifting security landscape.
Present assessments suggest that a new war between Azerbaijan and Armenia is unlikely in the near term, though border negotiations remain a delicate and high-stakes issue. Armenian authorities have indicated that border talks will not be treated as a pretext for entering into conflict. President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan has remarked that peace negotiations are advancing and that the country is closer to peace than ever before, a sentiment echoed by analysts who monitor the security dynamics of the Transcaucasus region.
Analysts stress that the outcome of border talks hinges not only on military balance but also on political will, international mediation, and the broader diplomatic context. The evolving approach to regional security, including possible steps toward expanded cooperation with Western alliances, could shape Armenia’s foreign policy trajectory in the coming months.
In this discussion, the author’s views diverge from those of the editors. The analysis reflects a perspective rooted in military and strategic reporting rather than an official government position.