“Chairman, (Sergio) Massa chairman“, the Peronists sang Sunday night, borrowing the song ‘It’s a Heartache’ popularized by Rod Stewart. win by almost seven points It was a surprise to everyone when he opposed the far-right Javier Milei in the first round of the Argentine presidential election. At the same time, no one expected a candidate to receive 36.68 percent of the votes. Minister of Economy of a country where 40 percent are poor and whose annual inflation is close to 150 percent. Massa reached the second round in conditions that would have been unimaginable days before. The horizon has expanded too much for many reasons. Anything can happen on November 19.
1. Economic factor
“Massa won an impossible fight. He burned all his political science books “We have prepared a case for the Harvard Kennedy School,” said Ignacio Fidanza, columnist of the portal ‘La Política Online’. Peronism’s defeat in the August primaries appeared to doom Massa and his presidential ambitions in advance. Despite everything, the Minister gave another example of his political courage and A number of measures that will positively affect the pockets of Argentines: reimbursement of 21% of purchases in supermarkets, monthly cash support for seven million retirees, fixed sums for private sector workers and improvements for 2.7 million people working in the informal market; Increasing government aid to families in need and encouraging domestic tourism.
It also postponed increases in utilities and transportation prices, abolished the income tax, and benefited one million high-earning people. Massa acted as if he were not part of the government that was seriously adjusting the economy to the crisis. International Monetary Fund (IMF)) allowed the refinancing of the $45 billion contracted by the previous right-wing administration. The minister waved his wand like a magician and pulled out the divine formula from the kitchen: expansion of public spending, ignored the target he agreed with the organisation: a deficit of 1.9% of GDP. Its impact was also felt at the ballot box. “Never before has a presidential candidate squandered so much public resources to benefit his own election campaign,” said newspaper columnist Joaquín Morales Solá. People.
2. Reasons
Milei provoked Panic in millions of citizens and the intuition that things could be much worse if the far right wins. And not only because of the desire to crush the State and adopt the dollar as the common currency. The capitalist anarcho encouraged currency flight and said the local currency, the peso, was worth “feces.” It turns out that he has no limits to achieve his election goals. It left its mark on the days before the election New insults to Pope FrancisIt was defined a long time ago as: “Bad person”and a call to suspend relations with the Vatican as long as it is run by a “communist.” The Catholic Church reacted on behalf of Jorge Bergoglio. He mobilized the priests at his base. Some part of the neighborhood must have taken them seriously. Open misogyny has robbed the far right of women’s votes. The defense of the last military dictatorship (1976-83) caused dismay.
Libertad Avanza (LLA) candidates have also unleashed their radicalism, going so far as to suggest that Comprehensive Sexual Education in schools should be funded by parents, or that a man could give up his paternity if the condom he is using breaks. “Against and against everything, Argentine society has chosen this: put a limit on madness. Things could get bad. Or very bad. Government can be bad. Or it sucks. But still not everything is worth it. Insanity can work up to a certain point. And from there it is no more. “People are afraid,” said Ernesto Tenembaum, a columnist for the influential Infobae portal.
3. Peronism woke up
In the 2021 parliamentary elections, Peronism lost four million votes. The August primaries increased membership losses by six million. Anger at the economic situation had caused deep discontent among its traditional voters. Massa took back half of those votes. benefited from More flock to the pollsregistrations increased from 70% to 78%. The Milei phenomenon also caused unionism, an important vector of this political movement, to intervene decisively in the campaign this time. “They want to take away our labor rights,” they shouted from the rooftops.
Youth and women’s militancy was also very important, especially in the province of Buenos Aires, Argentina’s main economic and electoral region, where wealth and social misery are concentrated. Axel Kicillof He retained his governorship seat with 45 percent of the votes. His victory, amid dramatic situations of poverty and insecurity, had the makings of an achievement that allowed Massa to increase his fortune. He did not pay the price for the scandal sparked by former prime minister Martín Insaurralde’s expensive pleasure trip to the Costa del Sol with an OnlyFans model. Peronism has also rebounded in other provinces where it was defeated in the last regional elections.
4. An issue that is not unique to Argentina
The prospect of a Milei victory challenged powers beyond Argentina. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva played no small part. On the one hand, he warned his colleague in the USA: Joe BidenAbout the dangers that will arise in the region if the prophecies come true. An admitted follower of Donald Trump may be on the Board of Directors in one of the most important countries in Latin America. But in addition, Lula put his communications experience at Massa’s disposal, defeating him. Jair Bolsonaro About twenty experts managed the campaign of the Peronist candidate in the October 2022 elections. Some of these strategists had already advised Gustavo Petro in Colombia.
polarization between democracy and barbarism gave results. The Pope offered an interview to the official news agency Telam to warn about the dangers of following him. a false messiah. President Alberto Fernández has little internal sermons and that’s why he left the stage. This lack of interest in his own region did not deprive him of traveling the world to launch the wake-up call. He informed the French Emmanuel Macron and in Beijing, Xi Jinping. China then decided to help strengthen the Argentine Central Bank’s capacity to counter dollar pressure.
5. Possible scenarios
“It is understandable to enjoy something unexpected, but getting carried away by an enthusiasm that may be temporary can never be justified,” warned Eduardo Aliverti, columnist of the newspaper ‘Página 12’. There is no room for hasty celebrations. Massa won the first match of the tough final. His first goal is to prevent the traditional right, which garners 23 percent of supporters, from supporting Milei, who has already extended a hand of friendship after calling Bullrich a “terrorist” and the capital’s mayor, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, a “cockroach.” ” The capitalist anarcho must fight his own violent instinct and appear more presentable in the face of those who fear him. In doing so, encounter difficulties. He continues to speak of Kirchnerian evil when this political aspect loses its centrality. Linked Massa to Hamas and only causes anxiety. But he has the chance to unite the dispersed anti-Peronist world.
Massa, with his usual cunning, moved in the opposite direction on Sunday night. He donned the garb of moderation, promised to form a “national unity” government composed of the best opposition cadres, and opened his arms to the left, which got 3 percent of the votes, and the centre-right, which got 7 percent of the votes. . The miracle of victory on November 19 will depend on the impact of their invitation. But also the performance of the economy. Argentina is a few steps away from hyperinflation. A new increase in the price of the dollar could destroy the ministerial candidate’s hopes.
For now, Peronism will have the majority seat in Congress, but will have 22 seats in the House of Representatives beyond its quorum. The legislature will be an atomized arena that will force negotiations between irreconcilable forces. It’s like squaring the circle.