Next week, perspectives for the ruble against the dollar point to a range around 90 to 91 rubles per US dollar, with short-term volatility suggesting the possibility of touching 92 rubles. This outlook comes from Alexander Bakhtin, an investment strategist at BCS World of Investments, who shared his analysis with socialbites.ca. The forecast reflects a careful balance of domestic and international factors currently shaping the currency market in Russia and beyond.
Bakhtin notes that the dollar-ruble parity recently tested levels above 92.5, only to pull back slightly as selling pressure waned for a moment. A defined resistance zone appears to be forming here, making a sustained move beyond that threshold less straightforward. He explains that ongoing pressures on ruble assets are driven by sanctions dynamics, which dampen asset demand from domestic and foreign investors alike. Meanwhile, export revenues have weakened, a consequence of lower energy prices observed toward the end of 2023 and Russia’s voluntary cuts to oil production coordinated by OPEC+. These factors collectively contribute to a softer ruble in the near term while keeping potential upside limited unless new catalysts emerge.
Looking ahead, Bakhtin offers a more constructive view for the ruble toward the end of February. He suggests that the seasonal tax period in Russia could play a supportive role: domestic exporters are typically obliged to convert dollars to rubles to cover wage payments and other obligations, which tends to increase ruble demand and exert downward pressure on the dollar. If this dynamic unfolds as anticipated, the exchange rate could show a tendency to firm up, aided by the periodic liquidity demand from the tax cycle and the broader flow of funds through the Russian financial system. The timing and magnitude of this improvement will depend on how exporters manage currency risk and how other external factors, including commodity prices and sanctions-related developments, evolve over the coming weeks.
Saint Petersburg and Moscow trading floors, including the Moscow Exchange, provide real-time snapshots of the currency picture. As of 15:01 Moscow time on February 20, the dollar traded at 92.4 rubles, marking a modest rise of 10 kopecks from the previous closing. The intraday high reached 92.7 rubles, signaling the presence of intraday volatility as market participants weigh shifting energy market signals, evolving sanctions expectations, and shifting trader sentiment. These micro-movements reflect the broader tug-of-war between demand for ruble liquidity and the continuing need to hedge against potential sanctions-related risk and geopolitical uncertainty. In practice, such price action underscores the fragility of near-term stability in the ruble and highlights the importance of monitoring energy prices, export schedules, and policy signals from both domestic authorities and international partners.
Beyond immediate price levels, experts emphasize the importance of watching policy settings and macroeconomic indicators that influence the longer-term trajectory of the ruble. Analysts commonly assess the stance of monetary policy, fiscal discipline, and the overall current account dynamics when forming a view on the currency. They also pay close attention to the pace of energy price recovery, global demand trends, and any new restrictions or relaxations that could alter the flow of capital into or out of Russia. As conditions evolve, market participants adjust their portfolios, balancing currency risk with opportunities in domestic equities, bonds, and commodity-linked assets. In this context, the conversation around keeping the key rate at elevated levels and its impact on exchange rate behavior remains a focal point for traders and policymakers alike.