Ruble Outlook for September: Expert Projections and Market Signals

Since the start of the year, the ruble has weakened significantly, losing about 40 percent against the dollar and around 41 percent against the euro. The currency has yet to find a stable level. At 13:40 Moscow time, the dollar traded at about 97.55 rubles on the Moscow Stock Exchange, up roughly 0.68 percent from the morning session. The euro stood near 104,865 rubles, edging higher by about 0.19 percent.

Forecasts from Sovcombank’s chief analyst, Mikhail Vasiliev, suggest that in September the dollar could range from 94 to 99 rubles, with the euro between 102 and 108 rubles on the exchange. Other market experts share similar views. Alexander Bakhtin, investment strategist at BCS Mir Investments, expects around 95 rubles per dollar and 100 rubles per euro, noting that signals toward the psychological level of 100 rubles per dollar are not ignored and that 97.5 rubles remains a key technical hurdle to advancing toward that mark.

So where will the dollar and euro land in September?

Tsifra broker analyst Daniil Bolotskikh projects a range of 92 to 101 rubles per dollar and 101 to 110 rubles per euro for the early autumn period.

Where will the dollar and euro stand in September?

Daniil Bolotskikh, a Tsifra broker analyst, estimates a likely corridor of 92 to 101 rubles per dollar and 101 to 110 rubles per euro for the first month of autumn.

Denis Perepelitsa, a candidate of economics and associate professor at the Department of World Financial Markets and Fintech at the Russian University of Economics, along with GV Plekhanov, puts the range at 95–100 rubles per dollar and 105–110 rubles per euro.

Analysts note that September may see limited shifts in the foreign exchange market, with the ruble trading within a corridor of roughly 95–98 rubles per dollar over the next one to two months. Andrey Shadrin, head of private banking development at Absolut Bank, emphasizes a stable range around 95–98 rubles per dollar.

Roman Chechushkov, head of investment analytics at Renaissance Bank, suggests a plausible band of 91–93 rubles per dollar and 100–101 rubles per euro.

From an economic standpoint, the ruble has shown a nine month pattern of depreciation. Authorities are expected to keep the exchange rate within the 90–100 ruble band in the coming months. The balance between export supply and import demand, along with broader geopolitical and inflation risks, remains a key factor, according to Vasiliev.

The supply of foreign currency in the domestic market has diminished as export receipts were converted into rubles or held in ruble accounts, and as some companies kept foreign earnings abroad to manage currency costs. Bakhtin notes that sanctions, challenges in repaying gains in Indian rupees, and Russia’s deliberate reduction of oil production have constrained foreign inflows.

What factors could support the ruble exchange rate?

Sovcombank’s chief analyst argues that a 350 basis point increase in the Central Bank of Russia’s key rate to 12 percent could dampen both consumer and investment demand, including demand for dollars and euros. He expects a further rise to around 14–15 percent at the next policymaking meeting on September 15.

Higher deposit rates and bond yields could boost ruble savings and raise demand for the currency, though full effects may take several months to materialize in the economy.

Oil prices could also lend support to the ruble in the autumn. The central bank has indicated that the exchange supply from export earnings and oil revenues typically lags real needs by a couple of months. Brent crude has hovered above 80 dollars a barrel, which could positively affect the ruble in September and October. Analysts project Brent may reach about 90 dollars per barrel in September, with Ural oil around 75 dollars. A firmer ruble would bolster export earnings and the federal budget, supporting the currency. Preliminary estimates point to additional oil and gas revenues in September of about 279.12 billion rubles.

The central bank may also adjust currency reserves by selling yuan to support the ruble if necessary. There have been discussions about guiding exporters to increase foreign currency earnings and repatriation through Russian banks. Since August 21, exporters have been required to report weekly on foreign currency earnings and repatriation volumes as part of stabilization efforts.

Could the ruble strengthen to 85 rubles per dollar?

Vasiliev believes that a reversal of the ruble’s weakness could occur once foreign exchange supply from exports matches import needs and capital outflows, with administrative measures likely to provide interim support. He notes the currency could appreciate if imports fall, capital outflows shrink, and export proceeds increase.

However, Sovcombank does not forecast a move to 85 rubles per dollar. The base scenario sees the ruble unlikely to strengthen below 90 per dollar within 2023. A deep rebound to 85 would require a combination of strong export price improvements and aggressive policy actions, including restoring mandatory currency earnings repatriation and tightening capital controls.

Analyst Daniil Bolotskikh concedes that a sharp rally is possible if urgent currency controls are enacted, though such measures are not expected in September. Anton Prokudin of Ingosstrakh Invest notes that achieving 85 rubles per dollar would require a marked improvement in export prices, which is not currently evident. A scenario of a drop to around 100 rubles per dollar seems more plausible amid continued currency shortages. Ongoing discussions between the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank focus on tightening foreign exchange controls, with Finance favoring stricter measures and the central bank adopting a more cautious stance toward broad restrictions.