The Moscow Exchange reports the dollar at 91.6101 rubles and the euro at 99.395 rubles as of 13:20 Moscow time, framing a currency picture that has seen the ruble slip against both major peers for a fourth consecutive session after the end of November. The month closed with exporters slowing foreign currency sales, and oil markets mirrored this shift, with Brent easing from about $83 to around $78 per barrel following the OPEC+ gathering.
December historically brings softer ruble dynamics. The seasonal drift reflects government year-end outlays that add ruble supply to markets while lifting import activity and foreign currency purchases, according to Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank. Investors also weigh the dollar as oversold and step back in, a view noted by Ayaz Aliyev, a Candidate of Economic Sciences and associate professor at GV Plekhanov Russian University of Economics for Sustainable Development. The Ministry of Finance has signaled caution, noting that the state budget reserves dollars to defend a 90 ruble level, a stance that signals policy makers may resist allowing a sharp dip in the dollar, as observed by the analyst.
Other headwinds for the ruble include rising inflation and ongoing capital outflows as residents and firms move funds abroad. Vasiliev expects these pressures to intensify toward year end. With holiday travel rising, some Russians are expected to demand more foreign currency in December, and market participants may broaden FX purchases to bridge the long New Year holidays, according to the analyst.
What could be the peak values for the dollar and euro?
The next meaningful technical ceiling for the dollar sits near 92.5 rubles, while the euro faces a roughly 100 ruble threshold. Exporters remain the dominant force selling foreign currency, and the Central Bank’s policy stance helps limit a deeper ruble decline, according to Alexander Bakhtin, an investment strategist at BCS World of Investments. Aliyev foresees the dollar climbing toward the 93–95 ruble range and the euro to 102–105 rubles in the near term, attributing these levels to sustained demand for foreign currency ahead of holidays and travel. He notes December typically strengthens the dollar, but values above these bands appear unlikely; the market is expected to trade within these ranges through year end, reflecting the current balance of market forces.
When might the ruble begin to recover?
Bakhtin suggests relief could begin in mid-December, around the time of the Central Bank meeting, as exporters prepare for the tax season. Vasiliev adds that the last week of December should see ruble support from the December tax cycle, with exporters selling more foreign currency and converting proceeds to rubles for budget payments. Companies are scheduled to settle through December 28 for numerous duties including mineral extraction tax, value added tax, and personal income tax, a flow that typically sustains the ruble. The presidential decree requiring large exporters to sell foreign earnings continues to support the ruble, with a potential modest strengthening in the latter half of December aided by possible rate adjustments and the ongoing tax cycle.
At the December 15 policy meeting, the Bank of Russia may lift the key rate by another 100–200 basis points, potentially reaching 16–17 percent. If inflation remains brisk, a rise to around 17 percent could occur, according to the economist. Higher rates tend to lift borrowing costs, which can curb consumer and investment demand, including imports, helping support the ruble. Deposit yields could rise, making ruble savings more attractive and boosting demand for the currency. Bakhtin cautions that by year-end the dollar could edge toward the 2017 levels near 90 rubles, while the euro might hover around 95–97 rubles, presenting a nuanced but still favorable backdrop for ruble buyers in the horizon of December and beyond.