At the close of November, the ruble weakened against the dollar and the euro as the tax period approached in Russia. The previous day saw the dollar rise by 20 kopecks to 88.81 rubles, while the euro gained 21 kopecks to 97.28 rubles. Over the week, the ruble attempted to strengthen, but by Friday a downward trend returned. The Moscow Exchange recorded at 15:10 Moscow time that the dollar traded around 90.0341 rubles and the euro around 98.479 rubles.
Analysts offered varied forecasts for December. Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, projected the dollar trading in the 87–92 ruble range and the euro in the 95–100 ruble band. A separate forecast from a BCS Forex analyst suggested the US currency at 90–91 rubles and the euro at 98–99 rubles for the final month of the year. Denis Perepelitsa, a candidate of economic sciences and associate professor at the department of world financial markets and fintech, provided a December outlook anchored by these levels. GV Plekhanova also weighed in on the projections.
Will the ruble strengthen?
Vasiliev highlighted that a key driver for the ruble in December would be the presidential decree requiring exporters to sell foreign earnings. The currency is supported by strong export earnings, helped by elevated oil prices and comparatively high ruble interest rates, while imports have cooled. He noted that a recent 200 basis point rise in the key rate to 15% per annum, implemented on October 27, increased borrowing costs and dampened demand for both consumer and investment spending, including imports and foreign currency purchases. Higher deposit rates also make ruble savings more attractive, boosting demand for the ruble. The Central Bank reported an average maximum deposit rate of roughly 13.64% annually among the ten banks with the largest ruble deposits in the second half of November.
Vasiliev forecasted another rate increase from the Bank of Russia, potentially raising the policy rate by 100 basis points to 16% at the December 15 meeting, with a scenario where the rate could reach 17% if weekly inflation accelerates toward 8% by year’s end. He stressed that further tightening tends to support the ruble over weeks and months, though immediate exchange-rate reactions after policy actions are not guaranteed. The broader impact of higher rates on the ruble has become more indirect due to limited foreign participation, continued sanctions, and capital movement controls.
Andrei Loboda, BitRiver economist and communications director, did not rule out ruble strengthening after the central bank decision. He suggested that if the regulator tightens policy, the dollar could slip to around 86 rubles and the euro to about 96 rubles. Perepelitsa echoed potential declines, with the dollar near 88 rubles and the euro around 96 rubles. Loboda cautioned that the market would likely follow the central bank’s forecasts and the relative performance of the ruble against other currencies.
Risks for the ruble
Vasiliev warned that December often brings negative seasonality for the ruble. If inflation accelerates toward 7.5–8% and budget spending increases in December, the ruble could face upward pressure from imports and external demand, even as households and companies withdraw funds and capital outflows intensify toward year-end. He noted that many business owners and managers sought to convert dividends and bonuses into foreign currency and move funds abroad. Some investors may also step up currency purchases to ride out the year-end holidays. Yet, he believes the influence of the forced sale policy and a reduction in imports could offset these pressures and prevent a weakening beyond a certain threshold.
The expert added that December demand for foreign currency from Russians traveling abroad could lift needs for dollars and euros. He advised spreading currency purchases across early, mid, and late December to reduce the risk of buying at unfavorable rates. Trifonov also noted that while buying is generally preferred during this period, volatility may remain contained and costs for foreign currency purchases before holidays are unlikely to soar. Loboda emphasized the importance of comparing rates across banks using online tools to secure favorable sales and gradually reduce exposure as the holidays approach. He also explained that as the year closes, the ruble tends to strengthen while foreign currency weakens amid the tax period and robust demand for local currency. The motive to accumulate rubles often centers on holiday shopping and securing a favorable deposit rate before the year ends.