The highest dollar rate on November 15 peaked at 90.7 rubles at market open. Since 10:41 Moscow time, the dollar has traded below 90 rubles. By 11:45 Moscow time, the dollar stood at 89.6375 rubles. The euro weakened to 97.6225 rubles. There were no euro trades in the morning; at the close on November 14, it traded at 98.13 rubles. As of 11:45 Moscow time, the euro was quoted at 97.4525 rubles.
Exchange rate movements in the financial markets can extend beyond typical patterns, and the record annual ruble devaluation through October 2023 illustrates that. From a technical viewpoint, there is psychological support near 90 rubles per dollar: some investors in equities may close short dollar positions, while others look to buy dollars in anticipation of a rebound. This dynamic could slow the fall of the dollar, according to Mikhail Zeltser, a candidate of economic sciences and stock market expert at BCS World of Investments.
He noted that rate fluctuations should be weighed against major inputs: the Central Bank maintains a strict key-rate policy that helps curb currency demand. At the same time, new rules for repatriation of income earned by Russian exporters increase the supply of dollars and euros on the market. The expert said that the ruble has strengthened in an environment of ample supply and subdued demand for foreign currency.
“Thus a temporary, emotional breach of current levels in the face of ongoing volatility cannot be ruled out,” Zeltser added.
When is it sensible to buy foreign currency?
“A realistic range is 85–90 rubles per dollar. It may be reasonable to acquire dollars at this level if there is a need,” stated Maxim Timoshenko, director of the financial markets operations department at Russian Standard Bank.
Zeltser emphasized that buying foreign currency now should be assessed in light of necessity and risk.
“The exchange rate is notably more favorable than a month ago, when it exceeded 102 rubles per dollar. Those needing funds can meet their goals. But speculatively purchasing currency to profit from fluctuations carries the risk of losses,” he cautioned.
Sovcombank chief analyst Natalya Vashchelyuk suggested spreading currency purchases over time.
“For instance, half of the planned amount could be spent now. In the future, gradually buy more, averaging the entry rate,” she explained.
Vladimir Evstifeev, head of analytics at Zenit Bank, acknowledged that the dollar could rise into the 87–90 ruble range.
“The ruble is likely to offer even more favorable conditions for foreign currency purchases in the medium term. A consolidation around 90 rubles by year end is expected, with brief pullbacks up to 5–7 percent below that level possible,” he said.
He did not rule out the possibility that the dollar could slip to 83–85 rubles.
Denis Perepelitsa, a candidate of economic sciences at the Russian University of Economics and associate professor in the department of Global Financial Markets and Fintech, suggested that a rate around 85 rubles by the end of the first quarter of 2024 could be viewed as acceptable by Russians. GV Plekhanova.
When might the dollar recover?
Vashchelyuk predicted a medium- to long-term weakening of the ruble, with the currency potentially moving to around 100 rubles per dollar in the second half of 2024.
Perepelitsa noted there is not yet a strong trend toward higher foreign exchange earnings for exporters, and the 2024 state budget is being prepared using a rate of 92 rubles per dollar.
“The government has limited incentive to keep the rate below 92 rubles. Yet market fluctuations are possible and the dollar may ease,” he said.
Perepelitsa added that authorities could later push the ruble to about 97 rubles per dollar and offset potential budget losses.
“Currently, the high interest rate from the Central Bank supports the shift of foreign currency savings into ruble deposits, strengthening the ruble. Monetary policy is expected to ease after the new year, which could contribute to ruble weakening,” he noted.