OPEC+ members have chosen to push back the planned restart of oil production from October to December, a decision reported by TASS citing a delegation source. The move signals a cautious approach to stabilizing supply as market dynamics evolve, with officials indicating the two-month delay would give the group more time to align production quotas with current demand projections and geopolitical considerations.
According to a source, the decision to pause the revival timeline is deliberate and aimed at ensuring that any incremental increase in output occurs only after careful assessment of market conditions. The pause is framed as a measured step to avoid an abrupt shift in supply that could unsettle prices or exacerbate imbalance in regional markets.
Since the start of 2024, eight OPEC+ members, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, have collectively reduced fuel production by about 2.2 million barrels per day. The initial plan called for a gradual restart beginning in mid-fall, with a target of adding around 180 thousand barrels per day to the market. This gradual approach sought to restore some balance without flooding the market or triggering a sharp price correction.
By late August, traders held mixed views on OPEC+’s fourth-quarter strategy. The broader market has faced headwinds as growth in China, a key oil consumer, showed signs of slowing. Prices for benchmark crude have slipped in recent weeks, dipping below the $80 per barrel mark in London, influenced in part by renewed concerns about demand and varying regional supply scenarios. In addition, disruptions in Libya have intermittently limited output, contributing to an environment where a portion of OPEC members’ production remains constrained due to geopolitical factors.
Analysts have long anticipated possible price adjustments through 2025, with some projecting lower price scenarios if demand remains tepid or if supply discipline weakens due to political or economic shifts. The evolving balance between supply discipline and global demand will continue to shape the market outlook, even as OPEC+ evaluates the most prudent path for production changes in the near term. (Source: TASS, with corroborating market commentary from industry observers)