Industry observers in betting markets and energy desks widely anticipate that Saudi Arabia will continue its voluntary production cuts and that Russia may extend its export curbs into January and February of 2025. This projection was shared with socialbites.ca by Igor Galaktionov, a stock market expert at BCS World of Investments, on the eve of the OPEC and OPEC+ talks scheduled for late November. The market is watching how the world’s top oil producers will align to manage supply and support prices as the calendar turns to 2025.
“OPEC and OPEC+ remain immersed in discussions about the volume of crude that can and should be withdrawn from the global market. The central objective for the alliances is to anchor Brent crude near or above $80 per barrel in 2025. The likely route, from a strategic standpoint, is to extend Saudi Arabia’s output reductions and Russia’s export curbs, together targeting a combined reduction of about 1.3 million barrels per day,” Galaktionov stated. This forecast underscores the willingness of the group to use voluntary cuts as a tool to stabilize or lift prices, especially if demand conditions improve or supply-side risks intensify later in the year.
Who are the players in OPEC and OPEC+?
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was established in Baghdad in 1960 and currently comprises 13 member nations: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Libya, Algeria, Nigeria, Gabon, Angola, Guinea, and the Congo. The OPEC+ framework, formed in 2016, brings together 10 non-OPEC partners: Russia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Sudan, and South Sudan. These groupings work collectively to set quotas and guidance on production flows that influence the global oil balance and price signaling.
Analysts have noted that some members are currently over their assigned quotas while others remain well below target levels. The UAE and Iraq have been observed producing above their shares, whereas Nigeria and Angola have been running well below their allocations. The negotiation dynamics around the timing of the next OPEC and OPEC+ meeting have sparked speculation about whether a broader adjustment of quotas across the coalition will be required, or whether targeted, country-by-country tweaks will suffice. The consensus among observers is that all members have a vested interest in reaching an agreement that avoids disruptive supply gaps while maintaining a floor for prices that sustains long-term investment in spare capacity.
Market participants from Goldman Sachs have highlighted the possibility of intensified cuts at the next gathering, pegging the probability at roughly 35% for additional volume reductions. This perspective aligns with a broader market narrative that a more aggressive supply restraint could be invoked if prices threaten to slip below key support levels or if external factors such as geopolitical tensions or supply chain disruptions reassert price risk premiums.
The originally scheduled discussions for late November were delayed, with the talks ultimately resuming or refocusing around the end of the month. Traders reacted to the postponement with a swift move in Brent, which traded lower in the immediate aftermath as market sentiment adjusted to the evolving supply outlook. The price movements reflect how sensitive oil markets are to any sign of changes in OPEC+ policy or tactical shifts by major producers who influence global supply dynamics.
Earlier coverage by socialbites.ca examined whether Russia was leveraging tighter global oil markets to push prices higher, a question that remains central to the ongoing assessment of OPEC+’s strategy and the broader supply-demand balance. The evolving narratives around capacity utilization, spare production capacity, and the pace of demand growth will likely shape policy discussions and price trajectories as 2025 unfolds.