The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) left its global oil demand growth outlook for 2024 and 2025 unchanged, projecting gains of 2.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) for 2024 and 1.8 mb/d for 2025. This stance comes from a monthly assessment prepared by OPEC teams, reflecting a stable view of the market trajectory as evaluated in their February report.
In absolute terms, the report pegs world oil demand at about 104.4 mb/d for 2024 and around 106.25 mb/d for 2025. These figures underline a continued expansion in demand despite evolving energy policies and varying growth rates across regions. The forecast assumes a gradual recovery in travel and commerce, with influences from several sectors feeding the demand profile.
OPEC notes that 2024 demand will be driven by renewed air travel, a robust automotive sector, and ongoing activity in construction, industry, and agriculture. Growth is expected to be more pronounced in non-OECD economies, where infrastructure development and urbanization support higher energy use and mobility needs. This broad-based momentum also points to stronger energy intensity in emerging markets as manufacturing and logistics sectors expand to meet rising consumption.
Further, the report highlights that demand in these non-OECD regions will sustain the expansion of petrochemical capacity, with notable activity in China and the Middle East. Petrochemical growth lines up with rising feedstock needs, supporting a wider set of downstream industries and contributing to the overall energy complex. The link between chemical production and crude demand is a recurring theme in the global energy outlook, reflecting how refinery runs and complex product mixes influence market dynamics.
On supply, OPEC trimmed its 2024 forecast for production increases from non-OPEC producers by roughly 150 thousand b/d, reducing the expected rise to about 1.2 mb/d. The projection for 2025 remains at 1.3 mb/d, signaling a slower pace of non-OPEC supply growth as producers balance investment, policy, and market signals. This shift matters for price formation and for regional producers that rely on export revenues to support local economies and fiscal plans.
For non-OPEC supply in absolute terms, production is anticipated to reach around 70.5 mb/d in 2024 and about 71.8 mb/d in 2025. The leadership role of major contributors is clear in this outlook, with the United States, Brazil, Canada, Norway, Kazakhstan, and Guyana cited as the primary drivers of growth for the current year. The report also notes potential changes in supplier status, with Mexico and Angola showing signs of increased foreign participation and influence in the market landscape.
Looking at the demand side, the report suggests that European demand trends and West African oil price movements have historically intertwined with shifts in regional production and inventory levels. While the narrative has evolved with energy policy shifts and energy security considerations, the core idea remains that demand patterns in varied regions will shape price paths and investment decisions for the near term. This is particularly relevant for markets in North America, where refinery margins, export commitments, and strategic reserves play a role in monthly trading and planning for both private and public sectors.
In this context, market watchers in Canada and the United States will be assessing how non-OPEC supply constraints, domestic shale development, and policy signals influence the broader oil balance. The February OPEC outlook provides a framework for understanding how these factors interact with demand growth, refining throughput, and global trade flows. By tracking the interplay between demand expansion and supply responses, analysts can gauge potential scenarios for prices, inventories, and investment in the energy sector at large. The ongoing dialogue between producers, buyers, and policymakers continues to shape the path of global oil markets in the months ahead, especially as markets respond to evolving energy technologies, climate measures, and macroeconomic developments.