OPEC reported that Russia’s liquid hydrocarbon output reached 10.92 million barrels per day by the end of 2023, a figure published in OPEC’s February briefing. The assessment places Russian production just under prior estimates, showing a shortfall of about 110 thousand barrels daily compared with earlier projections (OPEC February report). This aligns with Russia having produced around 10.8 million barrels per day in December, a decline of roughly 90 thousand barrels per day from November’s level.
Looking ahead, OPEC anticipates a further easing in Russia’s oil output during the current year, projecting a rise in the daily decline to about 80 thousand barrels, with total production near 10.84 million barrels per day (OPEC forecast). The organization’s outlook reflects ongoing market balancing measures that were set in motion during mid-2023 and extended into late autumn, when Russia committed to trimming its oil exports to roughly 500 thousand barrels per day as part of broader collaboration with OPEC+ members (OPEC communications).
OPEC’s broader view remains positive on global demand for oil through the 2024–2025 period. The agency projects demand to hold steady, with anticipated daily consumption around 2.2 million barrels in 2024 and about 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 for the wider market. In absolute terms, world oil demand could reach about 104.4 million barrels per day in 2024 and approximately 106.25 million barrels per day in 2025, supported by continuing growth in air travel, the automotive sector, and manufacturing activity across regions (OPEC projections).
The commentary from OPEC comes amid ongoing concerns in the United States about domestic oil inventories and supply resilience. While U.S. stockpiles remained a focal point for market watchers, the overall narrative highlighted by OPEC centers on the interconnected nature of production decisions, demand recovery, and the capacity of transportation fuels to influence price dynamics across major markets (OPEC February report).
In the Canadian and American markets, industry observers note that policy cues from leading producers and harmonized supply agreements tend to shape price expectations and investment planning. Analysts in North America track how reductions in output by large producers interact with robust demand signals from travel and freight sectors, as well as ongoing shifts in refining capacity and energy mix. The result is a nuanced outlook where the pace of cuts, the trajectory of demand, and the pace of economic activity together determine near-term pricing, hedging strategies, and strategic reserve management across North American energy portfolios (OPEC February report).
Overall, the balance between supply discipline and demand strength remains the central question for the oil market. OPEC’s latest numbers for Russia, alongside its global demand forecast, underscore a period of cautious optimism as markets anticipate how production adjustments will influence prices, inventory levels, and energy security for Canada and the United States in the coming months. The anticipated stability in demand, coupled with measured supply reductions, suggests a pathway toward more predictable pricing dynamics while the broader energy transition continues to unfold in these economies (OPEC February report).