The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has kept its global oil demand growth forecast for the year 2023 unchanged, as noted on the organization’s official platform. The updated projection aligns with earlier assessments and reflects ongoing market dynamics observed over the year, including shifts in consumption patterns and the pace of economic activity worldwide.
Cartel estimates point to a rise in demand from 2.5 million barrels per day to an average of 102.1 million barrels per day. The main driver of this expansion is expected to come from nations outside the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). In the broader outlook, total demand is projected to climb by roughly 2.4 million barrels per day, while OECD economies would experience a comparatively modest increase of about 0.07 million barrels per day. This divergence highlights how non-OECD regions are contributing more substantially to the global consumption rebound in 2023.
Looking ahead to 2024, OPEC anticipates another uptick in global oil consumption, supported by robust global economic growth and a notable recovery in key markets such as China. The forecast suggests that average daily demand could rise from 2.2 million barrels per day to around 104.3 million barrels per day, signaling sustained momentum in energy use as economies continue to expand and industrial activity resumes at a stronger pace.
The growth in oil consumption is expected to be led by China, several Middle Eastern producers, India, Latin American economies, and other non-OECD Asian countries. In OECD regions, the pace of growth is anticipated to be more restrained, with an estimated increase of only about 0.26 million barrels per day. This regional split underscores the shifting balance in global energy demand, where emerging markets and non-OECD blocs increasingly shape the trajectory of consumption and the corresponding needs for crude supply.
There is continuing market commentary that suggests Russia’s role within the OPEC+ framework remains a factor of interest for producers and observers. Analysts have noted evolving expectations around how coordinated output adjustments may influence price dynamics and market stability, particularly as sanctions, geopolitical considerations, and production decisions interact across the policy landscape. In parallel, major rating and forecasting teams have revised their perspectives on oil prices in light of shifting demand signals and supply constraints, contributing to a more nuanced outlook for energy markets in the near term.
Overall, the prevailing narrative emphasizes a steady, albeit uneven, recovery in global oil demand through 2023 and into 2024. The balance between growth in non-OECD regions and the more gradual rebound within OECD economies will likely shape price levels, strategic reserve movements, and investment planning across the energy sector. Market participants continue to monitor how continued economic expansion, energy policy developments, and supply discipline within the OPEC+ framework will interact to influence the path of crude oil markets in the coming months. All projections remain contingent on macroeconomic stability, geopolitical developments, and the pace of energy transition efforts worldwide, which could alter the trajectory of consumption growth and the required supply responses in the period ahead. [Attribution: OPEC framework and forecasts communicated through official channels.]