A senior independent financial analyst discussed the near-term trajectory of oil prices in a recent interview. He pointed out that Angola’s decision to exit the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has unsettled some market players, who had viewed the move as a destabilizing factor that could hasten a decline in crude values. The analyst noted that this development, combined with broader supply dynamics, has supported a shift in the price environment for Russian oil and related benchmarks.
As of now, Urals crude is trading around 63 dollars per barrel. Given the current softness in global prices, there is a plausible expectation for a renewed, modest upward move in the coming weeks. The analyst cautioned, however, that it is unlikely the market will retake the October highs. Looking ahead to year-end projections, he suggested Brent could hover near 77 dollars a barrel, while WTI may fluctuate in the 72 to 72.5 dollar range. For Urals, a band between roughly 64 and 67 dollars per barrel was described as a reasonable forecast as demand and supply re-balance progressively through the autumn and winter months.
Despite the potential for some upward movement, the overall momentum in the oil market remains downward biased according to the assessment. The ongoing recalibration of supply commitments, together with shifting demand patterns, appears to be exerting pressure on overall pricing trajectories rather than triggering a rapid reversal.
News reports in the lead-up to this development indicated that Angola had announced its decision to leave OPEC. This step was reported by Reuters and has added another layer of complexity to the organization’s production framework. Angola is consistently listed among the world’s top twenty oil producers, and the move signals a potential rethinking of quota arrangements within the group going forward.
Analysts from the National Energy Security Fund have commented that Angola’s departure could influence other members to reassess their participation or approach to the existing agreement. The evolving stance of member countries in relation to production quotas remains a key factor shaping the outlook for oil markets in the near term. In previous weeks, there were widespread expectations that disagreements within OPEC+ might contribute to further downward pressure on prices, as market participants seek greater clarity on supply discipline and strategic reserves. While tensions of this kind can create volatility, they also reflect a broader re-pricing process as global demand patterns adjust to a slower growth scenario and to geopolitical developments that influence energy flows across regions. Investors and observers will be watching how quota policies, production levels, and non-OPEC supply dynamics interact in the weeks ahead, with the possibility of new information driving short-term price shifts in the global oil complex.