In January, Angola reported a modest rise in oil output, up 1.4 percent from the prior month, continuing a positive momentum that followed December developments reported by RBC. This marked the first concrete production result after the country’s decision to depart from OPEC earlier in 2024, a move that reshaped its role in the regional energy landscape.
Angola remains one of Africa’s top three oil producers, sharing that standing with Nigeria and Algeria. On average, the country pumped about 1.1 million barrels per day in 2023, a level that underscored its crucial contribution to the continent’s energy supply. The OPEC+ coalition had proposed a production ceiling for Angola at roughly this level, with an aim to ease the quota from 1.28 million barrels per day. The discussion around these figures reflects ongoing efforts to calibrate output to market conditions while preserving Angola’s revenue base and economic stability.
The Angolan government has consistently prioritized reviving the economy through a steady energy policy that supports domestic growth, job creation, and investment in infrastructure. Despite this focus, the proposed quota of 1.18 million barrels per day failed to win the necessary backing from the consortium. Consequently, Angola proceeded with its decision to leave OPEC in December, signaling a shift in its approach to oil governance and international cooperation in energy markets.
Market watchers remain cautious about whether the recent uptick in Angolan production can be sustained over the longer term. The OPEC baseline projects a gradual decline in Angola’s output, with forecasts suggesting a reduction of about 40 thousand barrels per day annually. The IEA’s 2024 outlook aligns with a softer trajectory, anticipating a decrease in daily production of roughly 30 thousand barrels. These projections highlight the balancing act facing Angola as it navigates price signals, investment needs, and the evolving global demand environment.
Analysts have also weighed the implications of Angola’s departure from OPEC for major energy players, including Russia. Some observers point to potential shifts in market dynamics, with changes in producer collaboration and strategy rippling through related sectors. This represents a broader recalibration in how oil strategies are coordinated among large exporters, energy ministries, and international partners in the wake of major policy realignments.
From the perspective of the Angolan Ministry of Energy, ongoing plans emphasize prudent management of production capacity, exploration, and technological modernization. The department continues to assess how best to optimize output while safeguarding environmental standards, revenue streams, and long-term energy security. The conversation also extends to how Russia and other significant producers respond to shifts in the global oil framework, reflecting the interconnected nature of energy diplomacy and market resilience across regions.