Oil prices may retreat substantially in the coming months as tensions within OPEC+ intensify. A respected economist and former senior vice president at a major Russian bank spoke with socialbites.ca, outlining how these frictions could influence the global energy market.
He notes that the friction has already pushed Angola to exit the oil cartel, highlighting a shift in the dynamics that have kept producers aligned in the past. Historically, countries have left OPEC before, with Qatar being the last departure prior to Angola in 2019. The economist argues that the motivations behind today’s exits are not the same, reflecting a modern struggle to balance economic diversification with the need to maintain stable revenues from oil sales.
According to the analyst, large producers like Saudi Arabia are pursuing a strategic transition away from heavy dependence on oil revenues. This trend is visible in policy directions and investment choices that aim to diversify national income. As these economies push toward reduced oil reliance, they face a dilemma: maintaining short-term production discipline versus securing longer-term benefits that come from more stable markets. The expert emphasizes that producers are increasingly reluctant to cut output dramatically, given uncertain gains later on and the rising costs of slower growth in other sectors.
Adding to the complexity are ongoing issues in the Chinese economy and elevated global interest rates, which raise the specter of a global slowdown. In such a scenario, oil demand growth could slow, pressing prices downward. The analyst notes that the OPEC+ bloc is attempting to stabilize markets by modestly limiting production, yet its influence is limited, given that the coalition accounts for less than a third of world oil output. Meanwhile, the United States and other major producers have been raising supply, reducing the effectiveness of OPEC+ actions to keep prices buoyant.
All of these factors together create a risk that oil prices could move lower still. If trends persist, Brent crude might dip toward the $70 per barrel mark, while Russian-origin crude, even with current discounts, could approach around $60 per barrel. Such a shift would have broad implications for energy exporters, importers, and the global macroeconomic landscape, potentially triggering adjustments in investment and policy planning across regions with high exposure to energy markets.
Earlier warnings suggested that Angola’s departure could prompt additional participants to reconsider their alignment. If more members choose to exit or reduce their commitments, the outlook for OPEC+ and the broader oil market could become more uncertain in the near to medium term.
In related developments, analysts continue to assess the potential consequences of Angola’s move for major economies, including Russia, where oil flows and pricing dynamics are key factors in fiscal and monetary considerations. The evolving situation underscores how geopolitics, supply discipline, and price signals interact in a highly interconnected energy landscape, influencing strategy across governments and industries alike.