The tax period closing on November 28 could exert notable pressure on the ruble relative to major currencies, according to Dmitry Babin, a stock market expert at BCS World of Investments. His observations came after discussions with socialbites.ca where he outlined how timing around year-end settlements tends to shape currency flows and exchange dynamics.
Babin explained that the tax deadline tends to curb foreign exchange supplies in the market. With many exporters already having converted the rubles needed to meet financial obligations, the residual pressure from reduced FX supply in the coming week could intensify the downward or unstable movements in the ruble. This effect, he noted, would be most pronounced if the tax period activity tapers off sooner than expected.
Despite this potential near-term strain, Babin characterized the broader ruble scenario as reasonably solid. He pointed to sustained higher oil prices as a key supporter of the currency, together with a disciplined approach from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The central bank’s key rate stance has helped limit import demand, contributing to a stabilization in the domestic money market.
Another factor contributing to a steadier money supply, according to the expert, is the set of obligations now placed on exporters to repatriate and convert export earnings through the stock market. These rules create a steadier inflow of rubles for domestic use and reduce the volatility typically associated with large, sporadic outflows.
In intraday trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange, the ruble initially showed signs of strengthening. Yet as the session progressed, reversals near the day’s price peaks appeared, limiting gains and contributing to a retest of the lower end of the session range. By 16:36 Moscow time, the ruble traded around 88.41 per U.S. dollar and about 96.45 per euro, reflecting ongoing shifts driven by domestic liquidity conditions and external market sentiment.
There was a notable moment on the previous Tuesday when the dollar dipped below the 88 ruble mark for the first time since mid-2023, touching roughly 87.69 rubles per dollar before hovering. Market voices questioned how deep the corrective move could go and what level might act as a floor for the currency by year’s end.
Beyond the tax period and liquidity dynamics, observers have also noted a broader pattern of capital controls and monetary discipline contributing to market stability. The combination of prudent policy, resilient energy prices, and orderly FX mechanisms has helped cushion the ruble from sharper fluctuations and supported a more predictable trading framework for businesses and investors alike.
Analysts emphasize that while the tax-driven liquidity squeeze can create short-term pressure, it is not the sole determinant of the ruble’s trajectory. The currency’s path will likely hinge on a mix of oil-market fundamentals, central bank policy signals, and exporters’ readiness to align with new repatriation rules. Traders watch for any shifts in these areas that could alter the balance between supply and demand in the foreign exchange market.
In summary, the end of the tax period presents a transitional brushfire for the ruble, with exporters and market participants recalibrating expectations as liquidity tightens. Yet the longer-term outlook remains cautiously favorable due to robust energy prices and disciplined monetary policy, which together sustain a level of currency resilience even amidst the near-term pressures observed on trading floors.