In Russia, after the end of the tax period, the dollar is expected to hover around 93 to 93.5 rubles. This projection comes from Dmitry Babin, a stock market expert with BCS World of Investments, who shared his assessment with socialbites.ca. Babin notes that currency movements are influenced by a mix of market timing, seasonal factors, and the latest news that traders weigh as they form their daily expectations. As the week closes, traders will be watching how the ruble reacts to incoming data and to shifting demand for foreign currency from exporters and importers alike.
Babin explains that the ruble initially faced downward pressure during trading hours after news about an attack on Crocus City Hall surfaced late Friday, following the close of the foreign exchange session. On March 25, the dollar briefly touched a weekly high just over 93 rubles, yet the ruble did not break significantly lower and began to recover some ground shortly afterward. The ebb and flow of the day illustrated how geopolitical shocks, even when isolated, can influence short-term sentiment in the currency market while broader fundamentals remain in play. Traders tend to read such events as signals about risk appetite, seeking to balance geopolitical risk against the country’s macroeconomic backdrop.
Market observers point to the current tax season as a factor that could stabilize the ruble. The period of heightened activity around tax payments traditionally affects cash flow in the economy, and this year the surge is expected to peak on Monday and Thursday, aligning with March 25 and March 28. Market participants anticipate that exporters may reduce the pace of foreign currency sales as the tax window closes, which in turn could limit the supply of dollars in the market. If the added supply from exporters diminishes sooner than expected, pressure on the ruble could ease, though a flip side remains possible if other factors push capital flows outward.
Analysts at the Moscow Stock Exchange have been actively revisiting their forecasts as new data arrives. Denis Perepelitsa, a candidate of economic sciences and a scholar of financial literacy who teaches at the Russian University of Economics, Plekhanov, explained in an interview with socialbites.ca that the ruble’s performance largely hinges on capital movements and geopolitical risk. He suggested that a continued increase in capital outflows could place renewed pressure on the ruble, with the key driver being the perceived threat level and its impact on international investor confidence. His assessment aligns with a broader view that even in a context of favorable domestic factors, external risk sentiment can dominate in the near term if geopolitical tensions intensify or if global liquidity conditions tighten.
By late trading on March 25, the Moscow Exchange reported the dollar at 92.8 rubles, while the morning session saw the currency rise to 93.05 rubles for the first time since March 18. This trajectory highlights the ongoing tug-of-war between domestic demand for dollars and the supply created by trade and investment flows. Market participants remain focused on the balance between exporters selling U.S. currency to meet obligations and buyers taking dollars for import needs, a balance that can swing quickly with news headlines, policy signals, or shifts in risk appetite. Observers emphasize that even modest shifts in this balance can lead to meaningful short-term moves in the exchange rate as traders adjust positions and hedging strategies.
Earlier in the week, another analyst cited the Crocus City Hall incident as a catalyst for a rise above 93 rubles, noting that the event intensified risk perception and contributed to the sentiment-driven leg of the ruble’s move. While such shocks may provoke sudden moves, seasoned market watchers remind readers that currency markets are built on layers of expectations, liquidity conditions, and ongoing macroeconomic narratives. The practical takeaway for investors is to monitor the interplay between tax-related liquidity changes, exporters’ currency sales, and broader geopolitical developments to gauge whether the ruble will hold near the 93 level, extend toward 95 rubles, or retreat as new information arrives. In short, the path for the ruble remains a function of timing, risk, and the evolving balance between supply and demand in the currency market.