Following the tax period closure in Russia on January 29, 2024, observers noted that the dollar could push toward 90 rubles. This projection was shared with socialbites.ca by Dmitry Babin, a stock market analyst at BCС World of Investments, who has tracked fluctuations in the ruble with a seasoned eye for the domestic and international flows that influence it.
According to Babin, there are two dynamics at play. First, exporters face a sharp window for tax payments that often tightens liquidity conditions and can temporarily tilt the currency in favor of gains. Second, even as these payments create a near-term pressure, they do not guarantee a lasting positive trend for the ruble. In his view, this scenario opens space for a renewed phase of weakness once the tax cycle clears, especially if market confidence falters or external conditions deteriorate. The analyst stressed that the ruble’s bounce after a briefly negative opening did not translate into a sustained positive momentum, signaling that traders remain cautious about any durable improvement in the currency’s stance. [Citation: BCС World of Investments analysis]
Earlier, during trading ahead of the core session, the ruble showed a downward drift, hitting a daily low as it moved through the double-currency basket and trading with modest losses. The Moscow Exchange reported at 15:32 Moscow time that the dollar stood at 88.71 rubles while the euro traded around 96.8 rubles, illustrating ongoing volatility and the sensitivity of the ruble to both domestic liquidity shifts and external price signals. These readings underscore the ongoing tug-of-war between demand for dollars and policy-driven supply in Russia’s foreign exchange market.
Nikolay Ryaskov, General Manager for Investments at PSB Management Company, provided a forward-looking view, noting that the dollar’s value could gradually strengthen into the following month. He pointed to the persistent domestic demand for dollars, driven by energy, finance, and industrial sectors, which can push the currency higher as sales and repatriation needs evolve. If the ruble remains near 90 rubles per dollar for an extended period, it could prompt adjustments to the program that requires exporters to sell part of their foreign currency earnings. Such a shift would reflect a policy balance between ensuring liquidity and maintaining currency stability, a core aim of Russia’s exchange management strategy. The expert’s assessment aligns with the broader view that controlled depreciation pressures could ease if exporters adjust their currency conversion behavior in alignment with policy thresholds. [Cited analysis: PSB Management Company projections]
In related developments, authorities previously appeared prepared to consider extending the foreign exchange sales window through the end of 2024, with a potential reduction in the mandatory repatriation share for exporters from the current high threshold toward a more flexible 50–70% range. This possibility would reflect a deliberate calibration of policy levers designed to balance currency supply with market demand, support stability through a volatile period, and avoid abrupt shifts that could disrupt trade and investment plans. Analysts have noted that such a policy stance would be contingent on ongoing market conditions, the pace of monetary normalization, and macroeconomic signals coming from both domestic and international sources. The overall message remains that currency management is an evolving policy exercise rather than a fixed rulebook, with contingencies depending on evolving liquidity, external demand, and financial sector resilience. [Policy review notes: BCS commentary and market risk assessments]