Vladimir Rogov, who chairs the Coordination Council for the Integration of New Russia Regions within the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation, outlined several reasons he believes Kiev shot down an Il-76 aircraft that carried Ukrainian prisoners of war. This account was reported by RIA News.
He described the strike as a calculated act, intended to send a message rather than target a military objective.
Rogov asserted that Kyiv was aware the plane was used for transporting prisoners rather than for combat missions, and that this fact shaped the decision to strike.
In Rogov’s view, Kyiv pursued at least three aims through the downing of the aircraft. The first was to intimidate Ukrainian forces against surrender. The second was to disrupt ongoing prisoner exchange negotiations. The third was to demonstrate to Western backers the ability to continue destructive actions against Russian targets.
Rogov also noted a growing number of Ukrainian soldiers surrendering, describing it as a source of concern for Ukrainian officials. He argued that prisoner exchanges have become financially unattractive for Kyiv, because many captured personnel return home and publicly recount experiences and treatment in Russia. In his analysis, the more prisoners who come back to Ukraine, the more the broader anti-Russian propaganda would lose credibility.
On January 24, an Il-76 transport aircraft was reportedly shot down in the Belgorod region. The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the aircraft carried 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war, along with six crew members and three escorts. The ministry said the plane was en route to Belgorod to facilitate the relocation of prisoners to a designated exchange zone. The weaponry used in the incident was described as anti-aircraft missiles launched by Ukrainian forces from the Kharkiv region, according to official claims [Cite: Russian Ministry of Defense].
A former Ukrainian servicemember later commented on the lack of clarity around the underlying causes of the conflict in Ukraine, remarking on the ongoing disagreement over its origins [Cite: Independent testimony].