What’s new in the car market?
Chinese brands now lead sales and occupy the top positions in many charts. New players such as Skywell, Xpeng, and Tank have entered the scene, introducing a bias toward crossovers and pickups rather than the simplest and cheapest models. Only a few brands out of a larger group plan to offer sedans, and those sedans are expected to be priced like premium options. The trend shows Chinese manufacturers moving into the most profitable segments left by European and Japanese brands, yielding a market where vehicles often sit around 2 million rubles for basic models near Lada level or rise beyond 2.5 million for more equipped options.
The space left by traditional brands is gradually being filled by Korean makers. They paused assembly in certain regions but continued deliveries. A batch of Hyundai Tucson crossovers arrived from Korea in October, priced between 3 and 4.5 million. Inventory of Rio and Solaris has largely cleared out.
What’s wrong with parallel import?
Expectations around parallel imports of new cars have yet to materialize. The import framework under gray schemes is intricate and costly, with limited logistical options. In the summer, vehicle type approval was restricted for models lacking official certification.
OTTS certification involves a full testing program with several crash scenarios, making a small batch sale financially unviable. As a workaround, some allowed the Vehicle Design Safety Certificate SBKTS for individuals, which acts as a substitute for OTTS in certain cases.
Each car still requires a separate package of documents and a dedicated technical assessment to verify that the vehicle meets safety standards. Progress on parallel imports continues, though it remains tied to Chinese suppliers. A notable move came from the multi-brand dealer Avilon, which announced plans to bring in a thousand Chinese version Volkswagen Bora sedans and a Chevrolet Groove compact crossover adapted for local markets, priced around 2.35–2.5 million.
What about security?
The ERA-GLONASS system could not be installed on imported models until February 1, 2023, and on vehicles produced in Russia and other EAEU nations until January 31, 2023. Chinese manufacturers leveraged this timing by launching cars assembled in Russia without ERA features at similar price points. Official manufacturers must retrofit customers’ cars at no charge, which keeps prices steady. If such retrofits become common, the market could shift accordingly.
What remains for parallel imports is a question of ongoing impact and practical execution.
What happens with the warranty?
The Russian Dealers Association has been negotiating how warranties apply to gray market cars. Manufacturers typically do not honor warranties on vehicles acquired without their knowledge, yet the law still assigns warranty obligations to the seller. Dealers face a difficult position when repairs are needed for issues not caused by their own actions. Spare parts shortages also complicate arrangements. Legislative tweaks to accommodate parallel imports are anticipated.
Two approaches are on the table. The first introduces paid warranties, similar to optional extended coverage where buyers pay extra for service in specific regions. Such offers already exist in the market.
Second, some sales contracts simply state no warranty is provided. If a buyer dislikes this, they can choose not to buy. This mirrors gray market practices, where customers bear repair costs, and in some cases the ERA-GLONASS unit may be installed at the buyer’s expense. The second ownership often ends up holding the responsibility if re-registration occurs.
What are the prospects for 2023?
The core hurdle remains the availability of parallel imports. Finding volumes from sellers willing to provide cars in meaningful quantities is the main challenge. Japanese, European, American, and Korean brands are not yet ready for large-scale gray imports due to sanctions and existing shortages. Fewer channels remain.
Most forecasts suggest 2023 will continue the Chinese brands’ expansion. Electronic passport statistics show Chinese-made vehicles dominating new-car passport issuance, with over 80 percent share in the summer, while South Korea trails at around seven percent. Markets in the UAE and Kazakhstan are unlikely to become major sources of supply due to small volumes. A healthy level of competition among Chinese brands, combined with direct online sales, could gradually push prices down and expand the range beyond thirty crossovers.
Will there be Logan-like production from Tolyatti?
At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, AVTOVAZ signaled interest in potential Logan and Sandero production in Togliatti on a new platform. Internal challenges, including Largus localization and supply constraints, mean a restart timeline pushed into late 2023 at best. Renault has not guaranteed deliveries, and royalties would apply to each sold unit. Duster faces similar constraints. The projects are currently on hold.
AVTOVAZ officials indicated ongoing work on a new line of B-class vehicles, including sedans and station wagons, designed on a Renault CMF-B platform and built atop the current Vesta architecture, signaling strategic product expansion even as certain programs stall.
Requires 7,000 tires in popular sizes
Public safety and logistics need reliable tire supplies for emergency and service vehicles. A fundraising collaboration with the Popular Front is underway to secure tires for police, emergency crews, humanitarian convoys, and defense vehicles. Contributions are being collected via a dedicated page.