Market observers in Russia anticipate a continued rise in car prices through 2023, with a persistent car shortage despite the spread of parallel import channels. Dealers interviewed by socialbites.ca emphasized that price movements will largely mirror currency fluctuations and macroeconomic conditions rather than decline sharply.
One executive, Andrey Olkhovsky, chief executive of Avtodom Group, indicated that vehicle costs are unlikely to fall next year and will mostly track the ruble’s exchange rate. If external factors stay stable, he suggested, price levels could rise by about 10 percent from today’s figures.
Similarly, Alexey Starikov, Deputy General Manager for New Car Sales at Avilon, projected that the market will face a continued shortage of new cars in 2023, a trend that will influence demand and overall market dynamics. He added that, in the near term, prices are not expected to drop and could rise if the ruble weakens.
Starikov warned that any depreciation of the ruble would push prices higher, while independent automotive consultant Sergey Burgazliev noted there are no signs of a price downturn in the near future. He pointed out that prices are likely to hold at current levels unless geopolitical events or additional sanctions alter the landscape.
Within the used-car segment, demand has cooled for cars priced from 1 million to 2.5 million rubles, with many vehicles already sold and the secondary market showing either illiquid inventory or expensive premium options. Burgazliev suggested that buyers are becoming more selective about their vehicles as prices climb.
Tatyana Arabadzhi, head of Russian Automotive Market Research Analytics, explained that price increases have been driven by ruble depreciation, which affects both domestically produced cars and imports due to the cost of components. She noted that while sharp price drops are unlikely, a stable ruble would prevent further increases. Dealers also need to navigate a smaller pool of buyers, as interest wanes when sticker prices rise significantly.
AvtoVAZ stated it will strive to manage the cost of its vehicles, acknowledging that overall pricing is shaped by a mix of macroeconomic conditions, material and component costs, logistics, and consumer demand. Predicting precise price trajectories remains challenging amid ongoing global tensions and domestic policy shifts.
Gray imports are not expected to resolve the market’s imbalances. Arabadzhi highlighted that about 1.5 million cars were imported through parallel channels last year, with expectations for about half that figure in the coming year. The logistics costs associated with parallel imports remain high, and dealers show limited interest in bringing in cheaper cars that may compromise supply reliability.
There is cautious optimism that parallel imports will not restore pre-crisis pricing. Arabadzhi cautioned that the risk of secondary sanctions could prompt automakers to tighten quotas to neighboring countries such as Kazakhstan and Belarus, potentially limiting new-car supply to Russia. Burgazliev concurred that prices in Belarus and Kazakhstan will generally stay lower than Russian levels due to different demand dynamics and local support programs.
Projections place parallel imports at no more than 10 percent of total vehicle sales next year, according to Olkhovsky. He also argued that parallel-import schemes are temporary and fail to solve consumer access issues beyond mere delivery. The forecast for 2023 places total vehicle sales around 800,000 units, underscoring how broader supply constraints will shape the market.
Industry participants emphasize that the current restrictions should motivate policymakers to craft legislation that supports steady auto and motorcycle supply rather than merely boosting imports. Avtonom representatives noted that the market still faces considerable hurdles in ensuring a reliable supply chain.
On the product mix, dealers anticipate continued activity from parallel imports, including models once unavailable in the Russian market such as the Volkswagen Bora, Volkswagen ID.6, Audi Q5 E-Tron, FAW Bestune T99 and Besturn B70, Jeep Grand Cherokee, among others. While these imports add choice, experts caution that they will not fundamentally alter demand or price trajectories.
Looking ahead, experts expect Chinese brands to lead the primary market in 2023, with AvtoVAZ remaining a major player. Parallel imports will persist for premium models and select unique imports, but overall market stabilization will hinge on macroeconomic and geopolitical developments. In the electric-vehicle segment, subsidies may sustain some activity, but mass adoption remains unlikely without broader profitability and infrastructure. The supply chain for spare parts is likely to experience pressures as dealers seek cheaper sources, potentially affecting service quality and safety.
In a broader market view, Olkhovsky observed that Chinese-manufactured vehicles are currently prominent in the Russian market, with local assembly contributing to competitive pricing. The latest twelve-month results show Lada vehicles holding a leadership position in Russia, followed by popular imports from Kia and Hyundai, with Geely and Haval among the rising Chinese brands. The market has seen a substantial year-over-year decline in total car sales, reflecting the challenging climate and shifting consumer behavior.