Russia’s Auto Market Faces a Tightening Shelf Into 2023 and Beyond
Industry observers say stockpiles of new cars in Russia are dwindling, with a steadily shrinking supply likely to tighten still further as the year closes. Yet certain brands from China and Russia have shown resilience, continuing to rack up solid sales despite broader pressures across the market.
Alexey Starikov, deputy general manager for new car sales at Avilon, notes that the market’s stock levels keep slipping because a gap between demand and supply persists. He explains that current dealer inventories are projected to sustain trading activity for roughly two to four months at the current sales pace, though these terms will shift if demand patterns alter. The duration varies by make and model, underscoring how different segments respond to evolving market dynamics.
Andrey Olkhovsky, managing director of Avtodom Group, observes that dealers are lean on the stock they had built up earlier in the cycle. At present, his network carries a spread that includes more than 50 Audi units alongside several BMW, Mini, and Mercedes-Benz models. He warns that many firms may reach a loss in the fourth quarter of the year due to external factors depressing demand and altering sales conditions.
The AvtoSpetsCentre Group confirms a similar trend. Deliveries here are renewable, and the company reports a concentration of cars from Chinese and Korean manufacturers at its showrooms. Across other mass-segment brands, about 30 units remain on average, with premium lines like Porsche and Infiniti being less common. By year-end, market analysts at AvtoSpetsTsentr project sales to hover around 450,000 to 500,000 vehicles, a far cry from prior years. This figure marks a sharp drop from 2020 levels during the pandemic, when roughly 1.6 million units moved, according to the Automobile Manufacturers Committee of the AEB.
Sergey Tselikov, head of Avtostat, notes that American-brand cars now appear in limited quantities in Russia, with European and Japanese inventories also tight. He estimates monthly sales around 40,000 units, with December likely to see a modest lift as corporate fleets continue purchasing. In his view, only imports driven by individual parallel channels will persist as a lifeline, while production from China grows alongside AvtoVAZ and UAZ.
Independent auto industry consultant Sergei Burgazliev concurs that stock will run out in the near term. He expects no new international production to come online before year’s end and believes only a handful of plants—AvtoVAZ, Haval, Geely, UAZ, GAZ Group, and KamAZ—will remain active in some form. The market appears poised for a reconfiguration as brands recalibrate distribution and pricing strategies.
Prices are not expected to drop quickly, according to Olkhovsky. He points to volatility in demand after a period of mobilization, when confidence to purchase a car diminished. The banking environment also tightened, with lenders pulling back on auto loans, which further cooled demand. A renewed, pent-up appetite has begun to reemerge, even as some would-be buyers exit Russia, affecting used-car volumes as well. Overall, consumer needs have shifted, and buying a car has become a less urgent priority for many households.
Since autumn, price levels for both new and used cars have remained largely steady, with no broad market shift. However, discounts have appeared on certain new-car offers, including reductions up to several million rubles in some instances, notes Starikov of Avilon.
New model activity persists through the market as brands explore parallel imports. A notable entry is a Chinese-attributed variant of the VW Bora, which is slated to enter the market despite Volkswagen’s partial suspension of operations in Russia. The plan envisions up to 1,000 Bora sedans coming in, with an initial batch of 259 units set for delivery in the coming weeks. The Bora’s pricing places a 2.49 million-ruble tag on the naturally aspirated version and a turbocharged 1.4-liter variant at roughly 100,000 rubles more. The model is being offered in Russia in a high-end configuration, featuring an 8-inch infotainment system, cruise control, rear parking sensors, climate control, and other modern conveniences.
Parallel imports continue to bring premium options into the country as well. Example lists include Range Rover, Land Rover Defender, and Range Rover Sport, along with the new Jeep Grand Cherokee and VW ID.6, plus Audi Q5 E-tron electric models. Volvo and Jaguar offerings also appear within parallel-import channels, according to Starikov. The Volkswagen Bora rollout is seen as an experiment to gauge how Russian buyers respond to familiar brands in a new, parallel-import format, a point underscored by AUTOSTAT’s Sergey Tselikov. Dealers are actively adjusting logistics and pricing to forecast demand as the market undergoes dramatic restructuring. Burgazliev likewise notes a potential return to dealer-importer roles reminiscent of Russia’s mid-1990s through early 2000s approach, suggesting that parallel imports could continue to shape showrooms even after Bora’s introduction.
There is cautious optimism that the market will find its footing, but the overarching message remains clear: stock scarcity, linked to broader economic and policy pressures, will continue to reshape what Russians can buy and at what price. The coming months will reveal whether parallel imports can sustain a broader, affordable supply or if buyers will increasingly pivot toward domestic options as the landscape evolves.