From January through May, about 320,000 new cars were sold in Russia. In the most favorable scenario, annual sales could reach a similar level, but the more realistic expectation points to a much smaller figure. The overall decline in sales is estimated at 50 to 70 percent, with April showing a 43 percent drop and May an 83.5 percent drop according to early reports.
It isn’t just a shortage of cars. Many buyers are deterred by exorbitant prices. In early June, dealers were listing car prices around 600 thousand rubles, yet the true market price hovered higher, closer to 800 thousand rubles. And prices are unlikely to ease while supply stays tight.
Is there a path out of this downward spiral?
What is happening
Stable sources of new cars are scarce right now.
- Factories in Kaluga, St. Petersburg, and Nizhny Novgorod have halted or severely curtailed output. Renault has completely paused production in Russia.
- Eight Chinese brands, including the Exeed sub-brand, are still active and selling. The current catalog features around 30 crossovers and two pickups, with none of the models among the lowest price points. Upcoming releases are expected to be mostly crossovers. Sedans and hatchbacks may be left waiting as new models arrive in chunks rather than steady streams.
- AVTOVAZ and UAZ continue operations but with regular interruptions.
- Kaliningrad’s Avtotor shifted to a business pause in May and then resumed, but it assembles mostly incomplete vehicles due to a shortage of electronic components. Daily output dropped from about 900 units to roughly 200.
- The Primorsky Mazda Sollers plant delayed its return after holidays, effectively extending the break. Mazda, like other Japanese brands, faced a shortage of components from China, which disrupted a wider range of products.
By year’s end, it seems unlikely that all logistical hurdles will be cleared and closed factories reopened. The outlook suggests continuing absence of models from Skoda, Volkswagen, Nissan, Toyota, Mitsubishi, and Peugeot for a year or two, and possibly a pause in deliveries from Korean brands as well.
Secondhand market dynamics
On the new-car side, prices rose by roughly 20–55 percent in the first five months, depending on the make and model. The resale market followed a different path. Prices surged in March, then fell by about half, and continued to slide in April by 20–30 percent, with May bringing another 15 percent decrease—nearly back to pre-sanction levels.
Forecasts suggest ongoing softening rather than a recovery in the near term, with a stable resale market expected through September unless major conditions shift. Used cars remain available, though the best liquidity is seen in used vehicles aged three to six years with moderate mileage and in simpler configurations without advanced drivetrains or turbocharged engines. Trades that don’t go through standard dealer channels are increasingly handled by resellers.
The most liquid models on the secondary market
|
Fashion model |
Residual Value Index, % |
|
Porsche Cayenne |
113.3 |
|
Hyundai Creta |
112.7 |
|
Mazda CX-5 |
112.3 |
|
Toyota Hilux |
110.8 |
|
Toyota Land Cruiser |
109.6 |
|
Volkswagen Golf |
108.8 |
|
Toyota Camry |
108.0 |
|
Kia Rio |
106.7 |
|
Toyota Fortuners |
106.7 |
|
Mercedes-Benz G-Class |
106.5 |
The Residual Value Index explains how current sale prices relate to the price of the same model when it was new in 2018. Above 100 percent means the car can still fetch more than its old price after several years. This data is provided by Autostat.
Parallel imports
Manufacturers temporarily allowed the sale of cars without ABS, airbags, or converters. While this eases some supply pressures, it is unlikely to dramatically boost production because buyers accustomed to foreign brands are reluctant to switch to models like Vesta or Patriot. A broader allowance for parallel imports lets traders bring in and sell cars and parts without copyright approvals, creating a new gray-market channel.
The list of eligible brands extends beyond those that left Russia, including models that had limited activity for years, such as Acura and Seat, and even Rover, a brand inactive since 2005. In theory, parallel imports could help with supply, but they will not cover the shortfall of roughly a million new cars. Warranties are not guaranteed, and prices are typically higher than official sales. The new channel will likely focus on premium vehicles with high margins, while the bulk of affordable models like Ladas remain in short supply. The global shortage is estimated at 5–7 million cars, and a full revival of the old dominant sellers is unlikely in the near term.
The revival of the Moskvich brand remains uncertain. If production adjusts, Moscow’s plant could reach about 160 thousand cars per year, but such improvements are distant and will not erase the broader market imbalance.
Spare parts and cross-border supply
Neighboring markets offer some relief. Belarus experiences a similar shortage because many cars there originated in Russia. Armenia has limited quotas, and Kazakhstan has occasionally become a private buying destination for new cars, though gray traders soon repurpose the stock back into the main market. Some buyers look at imports from the UAE, where large premium crossovers from Japanese brands can be found at a lower price, but the process involves upfront deposits and climate adaptation challenges. Overall, a full market recovery seems unlikely, with only a slim lineup and high prices expected this year.
In this climate, Lada offers the strongest resale confidence. The secondary market shows less depreciation and easier liquidity for mass-market models, while parts for some Chinese-brand cars can be scarce for months. The smart choice for buyers is to lean toward the most widely available models, especially those from Lada.
Top-selling models observed in Russia
|
Fashion model |
January 2022 |
May 2022 |
|
Kia Rio |
6206 |
1202 |
|
Lada Vesta |
5953 |
1538 |
|
Lada Granta |
5526 |
2305 |
|
Hyundai Solaris |
4898 |
754 |
|
Hyundai Creta |
4153 |
1104 |
|
Renault Duster |
3021 |
561 |
|
Toyota RAV4 |
2762 |
|
|
Lada Niva C |
2555 |
1102 |
|
Lada Largus |
2237 |
642 |
|
Volkswagen Polo |
2161 |
397 |
|
Kia Sportage |
560 |
|
|
Kia Seltos |
502 |
*According to the Auto Analysis Bureau. Not included in the top 25.
They are not doing well |
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The varied reasons behind the sales decline around the world tie back to sanctions, price inflation, and disrupted supply chains. China is a notable exception where the market dips are driven mainly by the virus outbreak. |
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Across January and February, declines were modest, but the impact grew in April as major manufacturers operated sporadically or paused production. Export restrictions on essential materials like neon and certain metals further complicate the supply chain and chip manufacturing. |
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Projections point to a continued global drop of about 20–30 percent, with China as the only potential exception. |
Markets abound with discussion about simplified vehicle designs and how these changes will affect owners. For more perspectives, readers can explore related insights in industry roundups and automotive analyses.