Last year, Russia’s new car market rose by 58 percent when counting cars entering through parallel import channels. This trend is reflected in statistics from the Committee of Automobile Manufacturers of the Association of European Businesses in Russia (AEB). Manufacturers and importers boosted sales by 36 percent versus 2022, a year marked as the weakest in the last decade for the market.
Data obtained by the AEB Committee from manufacturers and official importers show that 937,000 new passenger and light commercial vehicles were sold in Russia in 2023. Another data set from Passport Industrial Consulting, based on vehicle registrations with the State Traffic Safety Inspectorate, indicates 1.13 million units.
Who topped the charts
By year’s end, AvtoVAZ led the market with 352.5 thousand cars sold, up 87 percent from the previous year. Chinese brands Haval and Chery followed with 119 thousand and 118 thousand cars, respectively, with Haval up more than three-and-a-half times and Chery roughly tripling its 2022 performance.
Geely ranked fourth, delivering 84 thousand cars to Russian buyers, up from 24.4 thousand in 2022. Domestic player GAZ sold 56 thousand light commercial vehicles, a 33 percent increase year over year. Including sub-brands Exeed, Omoda and Jaecoo, the Chery concern secured second place in overall sales, just behind AvtoVAZ, according to market results. Total sales under the Chery umbrella reached 210.4 thousand vehicles, while Great Wall Motor Group’s Haval, Tank, GWM and Ora brands posted another 138.5 thousand units.
Top sellers
At year-end 2023, Russia’s ten most popular passenger cars included three Ladas and seven models from Chinese manufacturers. Among the 25 best-selling models, Chinese brands accounted for 21 entries. Granta and Niva led the pack with 206.1 thousand and 90.2 thousand units, respectively, followed by Haval Jolion with 58.2 thousand and Chery Tiggo 7 Pro with 52.6 thousand.
Domestic Lada Vesta occupied the fifth spot, while UAZ Patriot SUV appeared in seventeenth place.
Results beyond expectations
The 2023 outcomes surpassed early forecasts. At the start of the year, the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee projected no more than 770 thousand car sales in Russia; actual figures exceeded 1.1 million. The 2024 outlook suggested about 1.3 million cars with an approximate 15 percent rise expected.
Automarketer founder Oleg Moseev noted that the real result could be even higher, suggesting 2023 was strong despite high prices, rising borrowing costs, and reduced parallel imports in Q4. He said availability improved, with sedans that were scarce last year reappearing in showrooms.
Negative factors highlighted include a weaker ruble and higher loan rates, which are not expected to fall before the second half of the year.
Chinese cars poised to drop in price
With an oversupply of Chinese-made cars and tighter credit costs driven by the central bank, prices may be cut soon, a shift that benefits buyers but squeezes dealers. Moseev also noted ambitious 2024 plans from Chinese automakers for the Russian market.
Chinese brands are expected to compete mainly on pricing. With ample supply and a return to more balanced demand, plans for 2024 total around 1.3 million car sales, according to Moseev.
Discounts on Chinese models are anticipated in the first quarter of the coming year. If the ruble exchange rate remains stable in Q2, distributors may further adjust prices. Dealers have already priced in generous margins, and reductions could occur alongside promotions, stated Autostat partner Igor Morzharetto.
Morzharetto added that there is little room to raise prices: Chinese-brand dealers are carrying about 200,000 unsold units. Projections estimate Russia will sell between 1.2 and 1.3 million new passenger cars in 2024 to support fleet renewal.