Among the most popular sedans on the secondary market for Russian buyers, the Lada Priora leads in value growth over the past year, rising by 19.1%. This finding comes from Avto.ru in a study commissioned by socialbites.ca. The report, prepared by classification experts, examined price changes for the most popular sedans aged 3 to 10 years in the Russian market, with sales tracked since November 2021.
By November 2022, the average price of a used Lada Priora stood at 482 thousand rubles.
The top three movers in price were all AvtoVAZ models: Vesta at +17% and Granta at +14%. The average price in November for these cars reached 945 thousand and 433 thousand rubles, respectively.
The next notable increase belonged to the Toyota Camry, whose price rose by 11% to about 2.6 million rubles. The top five is completed by the Ford Focus with a three-volume body at around 655 thousand rubles, up 7%.
Other sedans that remain affordable include the Volkswagen Polo, Renault Logan, Kia Optima and Rio, BMW 3 Series, Hyundai Solaris, and Mercedes-Benz E-Class. At the same time, the BMW 5 Series became slightly cheaper, with the average price down by 1.6%, or about 52.5 thousand rubles.
Independent automotive industry consultant Sergey Burgazliev explains that the notable price increases for used Lada cars stem from growing popularity, while demand in the secondary market pushes prices higher for solvent buyers. With incomes in decline, many Russians are prioritizing purchases of larger models from the domestic market.
Experts note that a significant portion of the population earns modest incomes and that growth is occurring only for a small, wealthier segment; for the majority, incomes are flat or shrinking. Consequently, the most affordable cars on the secondary market have become highly sought after, Burgazliev observes.
People often allocate no more than 550 thousand rubles for a car from their earnings. Inexpensive AvtoVAZ models aged 3–7 years fit well into this budget window.
Sergey Udalov, managing director of Avtostat, agrees that Priora, Granta, and Vesta prices rise because they are the largest, most budget-friendly vehicles. He notes that this year and last year, price growth in the secondary market outpaced that of new cars in the same five-year range.
Lada Priora was discontinued in mid-2018, almost five years ago, yet its popularity has surged among buyers seeking a relatively new car at a low price. Liquidity in the used-car market depends on the vehicle’s current technical condition, price, and mileage.
Russian buyers now favor cars no older than 3–5 years, viewing them as viable alternatives to new models. Vladimir Zhelobov, head of used-car sales at AvtoSpetsTsentr Group of Companies, and Nikolai Baskakov of Avilon emphasize that inexpensive Lada models are in high demand not only for their affordability but also for reliability and maintenance-free operation.
What lies ahead for prices?
Analyst Sergei Udalov from Avtostat expects that after the New Year and through the winter, used-car prices will remain steady, with 2022 results suggesting the market volume could be about 20% lower than the previous year.
Prices reportedly peaked in the secondary market around March and April, then eased slightly before resuming an upward trend due to persistent shortages. The weighted average price is projected to continue rising, or at least holding firm, in the near term.
Experts stress that the primary and secondary markets are interconnected. Until there is a surge in new-car supply and a notable price drop, Russians are likely to stay active in the used-car segment. Monthly imports of used cars into Russia hover around 30 thousand, while the total secondary-market volume is approximately 450 thousand units, suggesting a relatively modest monthly pace.
From October to November, the used-car market saw shifts as residents left the country, leading many sellers to reduce prices to move inventory quickly. In some segments, this caused a temporary uptick in supply and a dip in prices.
Sergey Burgazliev believes that barring any shocks, the market should stabilize by February 2023. Prices may rise gradually and remain stable in the next quarter. He expects no dramatic factors that would materially push prices up or down in the coming year.
Nikolai Baskakov of Avilon notes that overall used-car prices had not shifted since September, with no notable movement in the secondary market at the moment. Vladimir Zhelobov of AvtoSpetsTsentr points to external factors, including exchange-rate fluctuations and the pent-up demand from 2022, as key influences on pricing in the coming months.