A recent Gesop survey conducted for Valencia’s main newspapers — INFORMACIÓN, Levante-EMV and Mediterráneo — paints a clear picture for the regional elections scheduled for May 2023. The analysis suggests that the traditional parties could regain prominence after a period where voters drifted toward smaller, non-establishment options. The Partido Popular (PP) is shown as likely to attract around a quarter of the ballots, while Ciudadanos, which would not enter the Cortes in 2019, appears to have ceded ground to the PP even as Vox dampens its impact on the far right.
On the left, the PSPV appears comparatively resilient despite inflationary pressures. With Ximo Puig’s alliances Compromís and Unides Podem, the Socialists are positioned to secure five seats, potentially absorbing disaffected Ciudadanos supporters. The coalition brand shows high internal loyalty, though purple voters exhibit some volatility. Nevertheless, transfers between blocs remain a dominant dynamic in the voting landscape.
The major potential shift concerns Cs. The breakup of Ciudadanos could create a near 500,000-vote gap. Only about 11.8% of Cs supporters show strong loyalty to one party, while roughly 60% of Cs followers have not yet chosen a final option. Early indicators point to a movement toward the PP, with 22.2% of Cs voters likely shifting to the PP, far more than those migrating to PSPV (5.5%) or Vox (2.6%). This realignment helps explain Carlos Mazón’s growth, including a 13.3% swing of Vox votes back to the PP and an 8% increase in abstentions from 2019.
For Ximo Puig, the analysis hints at a leftward opening. The five seats forecast for the Socialists would come from within their own bloc on the left, strengthening the Botànic coalition with greater leverage for the PSPV inside the alliance. Puig’s strategy would potentially draw substantial support from Compromís and Unides Podem, while ballot transfers in the other direction would be limited. The PSPV is portrayed as a relatively leak-free party, having held more than half the support and enjoying the strongest loyalty after Vox four years ago, with only about 10% of its 2019 voters considering changing allegiance. Alongside the PP, this makes it a principal target for voter ambiguity, as many former PP supporters might hesitate between backing the PP again or abstaining.
Compromís, by contrast, faces a tougher path. Its voters show partial loyalty, suggesting that the coalition’s last autonomous base could fray, even as Jo an Baldoví’s candidacy is seen as a possible catalyst to reactivate Valencian support and perhaps extend beyond the poll’s assumptions, an element not fully captured in the margin of error. With Unides Podem, the landscape becomes even murkier, as loyalty data dips into the second tier among the major groups. The far right maintains a solid core, yet the apparent flight from its ranks still leaves a sizable portion of voters unsettled, which influences the final distribution of seats.
In sum, the transfer dynamics reveal a paradox: Compromís and Unides Podem, while collaborating in theory, show limited obvious voter repurposing, inviting a broader discussion about possible alliances and the left’s cohesion heading into the regional race. The Gesop study highlights that many voters on both Valencian and purple sides are reluctant to switch en masse, with a significant share undecided and watching how the coalition refreshes the left. This creates a chessboard where small shifts could reorder seat counts and influence which party leads the next regional government framework.
Compromise and Podem, two nearby camps within a changing political map, illustrate the practical limits of cross-entity transfers. The study notes minimal cross-movement between these two groups, suggesting a realignment toward PSPV is more plausible than a wholesale reconfiguration of the left’s voting bloc. The data also imply a cautious stance among PSPV voters toward changing course, contrasting with the undecided share that still looms in other groups. As a result, the left’s future in the Valencian regional setup remains contingent on internal dynamics and the ability to translate loyalty into stable support at the ballot box.
The overall takeaway is a nuanced portrait of a regional electorate at a crossroads. While the PP appears poised to gain from the disintegration of Ciudadanos, the left faces a more complicated path, balancing internal factionalism with the need to maintain unity and mobilize its base. These patterns point to a regional contest where strategic messaging, candidate visibility, and the management of intra-left tensions will play crucial roles in determining who governs in Valencia in the coming term. The poll’s insights illuminate not just vote shares, but the loyalties and hesitations that underlie them, offering a lens into how voters may choose when they step into the booth. [Cited from Gesop poll, attribution: Gesop polling for Valencia’s major newspapers]