The Valencian Community is preparing for a milestone in its democratic history as regional elections unfold this Sunday. All surveys published in recent weeks show a near tie, with left and right blocs both around the same level. When the polls open, parties will discover the true balance of support in the final days of a campaign that has centered on mobilization, grassroots organizing, and appeals for voters to turn out. Even the weather could play a decisive role on a day when a few raindrops might swing outcomes.
The big question for voters and pundits alike is whether the Botànic coalition will return for a third term. This regional government previously led by Ximo Puig brings together PSPV-PSOE, Compromís, and Unides Podem. The alternative would be a return to conservative leadership under the People’s Party candidate Carlos Mazón from Alicante, with Vox playing a potentially pivotal role on the right. Uncertainty also hangs over the Continuity of Podem and Ciudadanos Unides. If the purple formation fails to clear a 5 percent threshold, the Botànic arrangement could collapse. For liberal groups, the challenge remains to avoid disappearing from the political map altogether.
Province
The outcome in the province is expected to shake the overall balance. Parties are focusing resources on strategically important areas. For instance, the PSPV has concentrated efforts in Vega Baja, while the PP directs attention to Baix Vinalopó and its core city Elche. The campaign has moved forward without major shocks, yet national issues remain at the center of attention. The parties have dedicated the final stretch to winning over undecided voters, a group estimated at around 30 percent of the electorate in this 28M election.
Another indicator of the province’s influence is evident in the closing campaign stops. Both PSPV and PP conclude their campaigns in the Alicante region, giving Puig and Mazón their last chance to appeal to voters. Apart from the Unides Podem alliance, where Héctor Illueca shared the stage with Pablo Iglesias, parties highlighted their regional leaders. The C’s highlighted Mamen Peris, Compromís featured Joan Baldoví, and Vox drew attention to Carlos Flores Juberías. In Alicante, the alliance with Sumar and Yolanda Díaz has given the purple and progressive side additional national credibility, as they seek to surpass the 5 percent barrier.
PSPV has defended its administration and its candidate up to the final moments. Puig frames the choice as a fight for the social majority, arguing that economic and social indicators show the Valencian Community is stronger now than eight years ago and remains the best option to continue governing. The goal is to end the inequalities that were magnified by the pandemic and ongoing global crises, a key challenge for the campaign of the socialists.
Minors at the Abascal rally in Alicante: “Once we can vote, we won’t even think about it directly to Vox”
Partners
In the Botànic coalition campaign, Compromís has emphasized its independence from Madrid and its commitment to Valencia’s problems and people. Unides Podem has highlighted the need for public institutions to regulate the prices of essential goods, energy, and medicine, a major campaign axis focused on affordability and access. Health has been a central theme for the PP under Mazón, who aims to become the Generalitat’s first president from Alicante. The campaign has spotlighted housing and education, and the call for tax relief has been a recurring motif. Mazón visited Alicante with national party support, signaling the importance of the province in the broader election strategy.
Cs has positioned itself as a centrist option free from extremes, warning against a return to a rigid bipartisan system. Vox has argued for stronger security and robust support for the agricultural sector as part of its broader platform, signaling a potential shift on the right if the bloc gains influence. The national leadership presence and regional dynamics have thus shaped the final stretch of the campaign in profound ways, shaping voter perceptions and potential coalitions after polling closes. The landscape remains fluid, with the provincial vote likely to reverberate across the Valencian political spectrum as results come in.