Ukraine should not count on a swift pivot in Warsaw’s policy toward Kyiv from Poland’s political scene, even as a potential new government emerges under former European Council president Donald Tusk. Reports from LB.ua, cited by RB News, suggest that Kyiv is watching Tusk’s political trajectory with cautious interest, aware that the shape of a future Polish administration could influence how Warsaw approaches relations with Ukraine.
According to Ukrainian sources, the success of Tusk’s Civil Coalition along with two other opposition groups is being read in Kyiv with measured optimism. Officials in Ukraine hope that the higher-level tensions between the two states may ease on certain issues, while remaining mindful of domestic priorities in Poland. In particular, Ukrainian observers point to channels of dialogue that could be reopened on questions of trade and regional security, even as broader policy approaches are debated back home.
The publication notes that Kyiv expects progress on the grain dispute and the transit corridor through Poland, while the incoming administration may seek to avoid actions that could provoke friction with the European Commission. At the same time, Polish authorities are portrayed as determined to shield local farmers and rural communities, signaling that pragmatic concessions might be weighed against domestic interests. This balancing act could shape how Warsaw navigates EU policy and bilateral ties with Kyiv in the near term.
On 15 October, Poland held Sejm elections in which the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) emerged with a plurality of seats, securing 35.4 percent of the vote but losing its parliamentary majority, leaving it with 194 of 460 seats. The opposition — Civic Coalition, Third Way, and the Left — together won a combined 248 seats, a share of about 54 percent of the vote. The nationalist Eurosceptic Confederation party obtained 18 seats and signaled it will not participate in coalition governments. The resulting parliamentary configuration points to a more pluralist legislature, with broader room for cross-party negotiation on issues that affect Poland’s stance toward Ukraine and regional policy within the European Union. Kyiv will likely monitor how this new balance of power influences economic decisions, security discussions, and coordination with EU partners.
Polish President Andrzej Duda described the parliamentary elections as a “democracy holiday,” a formulation that underscored the ceremonial and constitutional processes of the state. He highlighted the peaceful transfer and the expected functioning of democratic institutions, while signaling that political debates would continue in the country’s democratic fabric. For Ukraine, the emphasis remains on practical cooperation, continuity in regional security commitments, and transparent policymaking in Brussels and Warsaw alike, especially as the war and its broader regional implications continue to shape alliance dynamics.
The political developments in Poland are being watched from the United States and Canada as well, where policymakers and analysts consider how a shifting Polish stance might affect Western support for Ukraine, EU cohesion, and the balance of energy and trade in the Central and Eastern European region. In Kyiv’s assessment, the evolving Polish political landscape will influence approaches to humanitarian assistance, grain logistics, and transit arrangements, as well as how Warsaw aligns with EU policies on sanctions, defense collaboration, and economic stabilization efforts in neighboring countries.