The strong PPCV growth noted in the Valencia region comes from a core group of 28 million voters who would, in effect, increase the number of MPs in the Cortes. Their stability is linked to a highly loyal electorate, even more solid than that of Vox, according to a recent Invest Group survey reported by Prensa Ibérica in Valencia. The practical influence of Ciudadanos voters is also relevant; by 2019, only a fraction would retain support, suggesting they could fade from the Cortes. These patterns emerge from a vote transfer study that underlines the persistence of the conservative voter base, with support for the populars and the ultras significantly surpassing left parties in 2019. (Invest Group) [Invest Group]
PP holds a lead, yet Botànic remains resilient with a narrow margin. In this analysis, Compromís again captures the most votes, while Unides Podem shows a strong showing of 63.6 percent, slightly above PSPV at 62.5 percent and only matching the 48 percent achieved four years earlier. The survey also highlights a leakage from the purple bloc against PSPV at 14.3 percent and against Compromís at 9.5 percent, with many voters struggling to reach the 5 percent threshold. (Invest Group) [Invest Group]
The theoretical transfer of votes is revealing. The right bloc appears far more cohesive. Except for Ciudadanos, where the PP gains the most ground, along with small shares for Vox at 5.6 percent, Compromís at 5.6 percent, and PSPV at 4.2 percent, the conservative base shows little erosion. Vox accounts for the largest transfer, at 6.4 percent, after a notable 13.6 percent of its 2019 support shifting to the PP in a favorable exchange. Only 3.2 percent of Vox voters switch to PSPV. (Invest Group) [Invest Group]
Feijóo secures a solid advantage over Sánchez in the face of attrition. The trend moves in the opposite direction for about 6 percent of socialist voters from 2019, who appear ready to lean toward PPCV. An age-based analysis reveals a trend where the far-right makes a strong push among the youngest voters, with the 18 to 24 age group signaling that the far-right could become the third force in this demographic. (Invest Group) [Invest Group]
Technical details of the survey: 1,500 phone interviews were conducted across three provinces, with 607 interviews in Valencia, 530 in Alicante, and 363 in Castellón. Fieldwork took place from May 2 to May 11, 2023. The sampling was stratified by province and population, achieving a margin of error of plus or minus 2.58 percent at a 95.5 percent confidence level. Source: Investment Group. (Invest Group) [Invest Group]