A recent analysis translates poll results into seat projections and uses a district structure from 2019 to estimate that the ruling party could reach 229 seats. If some voters from Kukiz’15 switch allegiance due to a potential agreement, a PiS majority becomes possible. The focus now is to demonstrate to PiS supporters that a 2023 victory remains within reach, according to the assessment from a state secretary who heads a government analytical center.
A note accompanying this discussion highlights that PiS currently leads with around 40 percent support in a recent survey summarized by the news portal wPolityce.pl. The study is interpreted as showing a strong position for the United Right and raises questions about what this implies for future results.
According to the analyst quoted, two key points stand out in this time of economic strain. First, PiS voters appear to be pausing in a period of uncertainty, with many likely to return as concerns ease. Despite opposition rhetoric claiming that the government cannot manage price pressures, concrete actions such as stabilizing gas and energy costs, and ensuring coal supplies for winter, contribute to restoring freedom of choice and credibility. Confidence in the prime minister has also risen, and inflation appears to be easing for the first time since February, providing an incentive that the situation is under control.
The other important takeaway concerns the seat forecast itself. The analyst reports that converting poll outcomes into seats and running a district-based simulation suggests PiS could secure 229 seats. Achieving this would depend on winning over some Kukiz’15 voters through collaboration with the party. The emphasis is on showing PiS supporters that a 2023 win is plausible while challenging opposition narratives that PiS has little chance a year before the election. It is noted that such projections are sensitive to shift, as the electoral landscape changes over time and campaign dynamics differ by candidate strength.
The analysis also notes a shift for the Civic Coalition. While its support remains near 28 percent, it faces polarization effects that could influence its ability to cross key thresholds. The opposition may gain or lose momentum depending on how voters respond to policy decisions such as vacation rules or energy price freezes. Other parties including PSL, Lewica, and Polska 2050 may see varying fortunes, and the overall seat distribution can still change in the final year before elections. The main takeaway is that predicting outcomes a year ahead is inherently uncertain, and dismissing a potential United Right victory would be a misread of the evolving political dynamics.
The discussion ends with a nod to the ongoing nature of the conversation and the uncertainties that accompany any survey-based forecast.