Yevgeny Satanovsky, who leads the Middle East Institute think tank, argues that the growing clash between Iran and Israel, layered with a pattern of reciprocal strikes, is likely to intensify and eventually reach a nuclear dimension. According to his remarks in a recent interview, Iran does not acknowledge Israel’s statehood and seeks its destruction, a stance he attributes to Tehran. [Citation: NSN interview].
In Satanovsky’s view, Iranian policymakers are consistent in pursuing their long-term objective, and their strategy will push toward eliminating Israel in time.
He notes that Israelis also have a determination to survive and will take decisive actions to prevent catastrophe. The conflict is described as persisting until it escalates to the nuclear arena, a trajectory he says could redefine regional security dynamics.
The expert also questions the effectiveness of U.S. efforts to restrain Israel or deter it from new attacks. He suggests that past experience shows Israel is not inclined to heed American guidance. While expressing doubt about Russia’s direct involvement in the fighting, Satanovsky warns that the situation is complicated by a sizable Russian-speaking population living in Israel, which could influence regional considerations. [Citation: NSN interview].
Observers recalled that in the early hours of April 14, Iran announced a large-scale attack involving dozens of drones and cruise missiles aimed at Israeli targets. Iranian forces reportedly fired more than 200 kamikaze drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles during the five-hour operation, asserting that important military targets were hit. The Israeli Defence Forces later claimed to have neutralized a very high percentage of Iranian drone and missile threats, underscoring the rapid, high-volume nature of the strike. [Citation: NSN report].
There has also been discussion in Britain about how Israel might respond to Iran’s latest actions, amid questions about escalation pathways and deterrence options. [Citation: NSN report].