Stable leaders in new Ipsos poll for TOK FM and OKO.press
A fresh Ipsos survey depicts Rafał Trzaskowski and Mateusz Morawiecki as the frontrunners likely to advance to a second voting round. Szymon Hołownia, who once enjoyed broad popularity, appears to be slipping in public support according to the latest results released for TOK FM and OKO.press.
Respondents were asked: “If the presidential ballot looked like this, who would you vote for in the first round?”
Top positions hold steady
Rafał Trzaskowski, aligned with the Civic Coalition, gathered 26 percent of the vote in the first round question. Close behind him, former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, associated with the ruling party, posted 25 percent. In third place stands Szymon Hołownia, linked to the Third Way, with 16 percent. Other candidates trailed: Krzysztof Bosak of the Confederation at 10 percent, Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk of the New Left at 4 percent, and journalist Krzysztof Stanowski at 3 percent. About 7 percent said they did not know whether they would participate, 9 percent had not yet decided who to vote for, and 1 percent refused to answer.
The Ipsos survey was conducted from February 22 to 26, 2024, using mixed methods (CATI and CAWI) on a national, representative sample of adult Poles, N=1000. The poll was designed to capture a broad cross-section of voters ahead of the election, reflecting current attitudes and potential shifts in support as campaigns unfold.
Consistency at the top?
Political scientist Prof. Rafał Chwedoruk commented on theIpsos results, noting little surprise at the stability of the leadership. He observed that Rafał Trzaskowski has maintained a leading position in public opinion since the earlier campaign, especially after the loss to Andrzej Duda. In the analyst’s view, Trzaskowski’s chances could grow as the election draws nearer, particularly if left-leaning voters rally behind the KO candidate in any second-round scenario. Chwedoruk also highlighted demographic changes and rising voter turnout as factors that could favor Trzaskowski and the city’s mayoral profile in national politics.
Beyond general party alignment, Chwedoruk suggested that the current presidential race mirrors broader support for the parties behind each candidate, indicating the role of party loyalty in shaping early preferences.
Morawiecki remains the most recognizable PiS figure after Jarosław Kaczyński, which translates into a strong party presence in the poll. The key question for observers is how his candidacy would be perceived within PiS and among voters who have drifted away over recent months. Chwedoruk emphasized that even if PiS had named someone other than Morawiecki, he suspects overall support for the party’s presidential bid would not have changed dramatically.
— insights from Prof. Chwedoruk illustrate how party identity and leadership perception interact with broader electoral dynamics at this stage of the race.
Hołownia’s challenges
The current cycle presents a warning for Szymon Hołownia, who has recently ceded a portion of his support. Chwedoruk pointed out that Hołownia risks losing the KO electorate, particularly if a larger confrontation with PiS intensifies. In his view, Hołownia’s decline is partly tied to associations with figures from his earlier political footprint, including Janusz Palikot and Paweł Kukiz.
In the eyes of voters, a candidate with a pop culture background can spark early excitement, but as scrutiny grows, some voters discover traits or histories they may not embrace. This pattern, observed by the political scientist, underscores a common challenge for outsiders entering the political arena.
These dynamics offer a snapshot of the evolving political landscape as parties and candidates position themselves for the next phase of campaigning. The analysis signals caution for Hołownia and encouragement for Trzaskowski and Morawiecki as they navigate a changing electorate.
Source attribution: wPolityce.