The leaders of Germany and France may confront the European Commission in an effort to stabilize dialogue with Russia, a move seen by many analysts as central to addressing the EU’s most pressing challenges. The euro’s parity with the dollar, turmoil in Italy, rising inflation across many member states, and ongoing questions about arms supplies to Ukraine all weigh on political calculations and public opinion.
Observers suggest that a clash between Scholz and von der Leyen in Brussels could unfold, with Macron seeking a renewed channel of communication with Moscow. The broader assessment is that the European Commission has faced significant pressure not only over the handling of the Russian operation in Ukraine but also amid a sequence of European-wide crises spanning Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Critics have argued that the Commission presidency has shown notable shortcomings, with some describing the role as insufficiently assertive in guiding member states during turbulent times. The discussion reflects a broader debate about leadership and influence within the EU, particularly as France and Germany shape the direction of policy toward Russia and the conflict in Ukraine.
Italy is expected to face higher financing costs as a result of recent measures by the European Central Bank. Given Italy’s status as a founding member of the EU, many analysts believe that a shift in the bilateral dynamics between Paris, Berlin, and Brussels could be necessary to recalibrate relations with EU institutions and with Russia. There are signals that Germany has begun to explore a path toward normalized ties with Moscow.
Recent reports indicate delays in a substantial aid package to Ukraine and some hesitancy in transferring heavy military equipment to partners supporting Kyiv. These expectations have been interpreted as indications of growing frictions within EU policy toward the war and security commitments in Europe.
The described cracks are viewed as real indicators of evolving strategic calculations rather than mere rhetoric.
The beginning of the division of Europe
According to the analysis, a crisis in Italy could become the spark that accelerates changes in EU policy toward Russia and the war in Ukraine. The departure of Italy’s political leadership is framed as a consequence of both domestic economic pressures and the broader European response to Russia’s actions.
Analysts speculate that the upcoming Italian elections could produce a coalition of parties aligned with a tougher stance on Russia, potentially triggering a chain reaction across the EU. Such a shift might prompt a reevaluation of economic and political strategies, with some fearing populist movements across other member states could push Europe toward a new era of dialogue with Moscow.
There is also discussion of a potential divergence in the relationship between the United States and the European Union. The rhetoric around military support to Ukraine, combined with political developments in Washington and Brussels, is seen as a factor that could recalibrate transatlantic dynamics. Some observers warn that internal political changes in the United States could reduce its influence on European security policy, while concerns about corruption and the diversion of American equipment in regional conflicts are noted as ongoing issues.
Movement towards peace
In late July, discussions emerged about energy security and the potential reconsideration of pipeline routes. German officials were reported to be examining options for ensuring a stable gas supply, with Nord Stream 2 cited as a symbolic element in the broader energy strategy. Proposals from regional authorities urged the federal government to weigh the benefits of maintaining critical energy connections, arguing that long-term energy stability should guide policy choices as the EU reassesses its dependence on external sources.
Municipal leaders on the Baltic island of Rügen called for a comprehensive review of energy strategy, advocating for a practical approach to maintaining security and resource stability. They suggested that, if existing capacity is constrained, connecting alternative pipelines could be an important contingency for Germany’s energy needs.
Additionally, coverage from major outlets emphasized that European countries are reassessing the effectiveness of economic responses to sanctions and exploring paths to rebuild dialogue with Russia. There is growing evidence that sanctions may be creating unintended consequences in Western economies while Russia continues to benefit from sustained energy and agricultural exports due to global demand and limited substitutes.