the star went out — italy’s political tremors and their international echoes

the star went out

The coming week has revived questions about Italy’s parliamentary stability. While world-class economist Mario Draghi held power since February 2021, partisan rifts within Italian politics persisted and the government struggled to bridge them.

Draghi’s departure came after the Five Star Movement, a core pillar of the ruling coalition, abstained from participating in the Senate confidence vote. The move signaled a withdrawal from the parliamentary majority. Also, the right-wing blocs Forward Italy and the League did not join the vote. Although the government received confidence in the formal tally, the core faction undercut turnout, contributing to a collapse in backing.

President Sergio Mattarella accepted Draghi’s resignation for the second time.

Elena Maslova, an associate professor at MGIMO in the Department of Integration Processes, explained to socialbites.ca that the president’s hesitation to accept the resignation reflects the hopes many Italians still place in Draghi.

“Mario Draghi is one of the few serious politicians recognized beyond Italy. His leadership elevated Italy’s standing on the global stage, and the joint trip to Kyiv with Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz showed Italy could stand alongside France and Germany. More importantly, Draghi was seen as the custodian of EU funds aimed at fueling Italy’s growth. He was a crisis manager called to rescue the country.”

In the eyes of Maslova, Italian society often asked, “Who else if not Draghi?” in moments of political compromise. Polls reflected this sentiment, with more than half of Italians expressing a desire for a new government immediately after Draghi announced his resignation.

Yet Elena Alekseenkova, head of the Center for Italian Studies at the European Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, cautioned that such an outcome is not guaranteed. She noted that Draghi’s path back into power would require broad political consensus and a clear, shared reconstruction plan. The idea of Draghi reemerging remains uncertain, and elections were anticipated to be held as mandated by the president on September 25. Draghi was not expected to participate in those elections.

Who benefits from Draghi’s departure?

The initial crisis stemmed from the Five Star Movement’s distrust of the government. In the latest parliamentary votes, mistrust of Draghi extended to center-right factions that previously signaled willingness to cooperate. Alekseenkova argued that the center-right has the strongest chance to form a new government at this stage.

She pointed to the coalition of the League, Brothers of Italy, and Forward Italy as having significant potential. Among them, Brothers of Italy, led by Giorgia Meloni, held a lead in popularity, while the League and Forward Italy trailed. Recent discussions suggested these parties might present a united bloc for the upcoming elections, potentially enabling a center-right government and making Meloni an expected prime minister candidate.

Maslova added that Meloni’s rising visibility is aided by a political climate of public fatigue and demand for decisive leadership. Italians long for a figure who can deliver swift solutions amid ongoing crisis, and Meloni’s position as a relatively newer national figure contributes to her appeal.

What does this mean for Russia?

Maslova suggested that a right-leaning coalition in Rome would likely favor more dialogue with Moscow. The current anti-Russian coalition contains left-leaning factions advocating a tough stance against Moscow, creating a balancing act for those who would rather avoid picking sides. The center-right groups have expressed varied views on relations with Russia and the Ukraine conflict, with some urging engagement and others supporting stronger sanctions.

For instance, leaders of the League and Forward Italy have at times argued that arms shipments to Ukraine should not be a path to peace, encouraging negotiations instead. Brothers of Italy has generally supported Ukraine aid and a higher European defense posture. Experts from the European Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences note that the parties broadly condemn Russia’s actions and support the EU’s sanctions framework, though opinions diverge on energy policy and the gas embargo.

If a center-right coalition forms, it is unlikely to radically alter Rome’s relationship with Moscow, given Italy’s economic ties to the EU. The reconstruction and development plan backed by the EU, which allocated substantial funds for recovery, remains a central factor in any future policy—potentially outweighing other considerations. Even with sanctions, the balance of economic support and alliance with the EU would influence Italy’s stance toward Russia, according to Alekseenkova.