Discontent ran through the bourgeois ranks before the political class in a notable early populist trial in Italy, dating back to 1946. That year also saw the emergence of the post-fascist Italian Social Movement and the rise of Brothers of Italy led by Giorgia Meloni. Over the last seventy-five years, Italy has seen 67 governments, with 11 forming in the past two decades alone.
Yet today presents a different picture. Since the collapse of fascism, no far‑right party has grown as rapidly in the polls as Brothers of Italy. The party aimed to mobilize voters for general elections slated for 25 September. Amid pandemic and economic strain, governments often appointed without polls, and this formation stood out as the only major party not fully embedded in the governing coalitions of the last decade.
A landmark scenario has unsettled the foreign ministries of major European nations and the Italian establishment. The reasons are numerous and evolving.
war times
Italy has long been a member of the G-7 and G-20, functioning as a bridge between Moscow and the rest of Europe. With technocrat Mario Draghi as prime minister, the country aligned closely with allies, supported the Ukrainian government, and played a prominent role on the European stage. This shift positioned Italy as a decisive factor in the broader realignment seen in Rome, Berlin, and Paris. The French president emphasized Ukraine as a candidate for EU membership, underscoring unity among Paris, Rome, and Berlin in confronting Russia.
Draghi’s leadership helped Italy reduce its dependence on Russian gas from about 40% to 25%. The continuation of that path remains uncertain given divisions within the centre-right coalition, where Meloni’s partners Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi have shown openness to Moscow. This dynamic has realigned power and raised questions about deeper European integration and strategic alignment.
The conversation around Europe’s security posture has shifted to a broader Atlantist stance that some analysts insist must persist after the elections. The debate touches on how far Italy should go in aligning with NATO and EU energy and defense strategies.
Post-pandemic economy
As the EU’s third-largest economy, Italy weathered a sharp pandemic downturn and later rebounded, with IMF estimates suggesting a near seven-percent rebound last year and a forecast of around three percent growth for the following year. The trajectory toward sustainable growth will depend on policy decisions as Draghi departs and the new executive outlines its plan to the European Commission.
Analysts expect Italy to remain aligned with EU expectations, but tensions may arise from the need to meet the terms of the EU recovery plan and the substantial loans and subsidies in play. The new leadership will have to demonstrate continued commitment to fiscal targets and structural reforms.
There is also a Franco-Italian axis in play, propelled by Draghi and Macron, with Paris seeking changes to Europe’s financial rules. The ongoing Franco-Italian collaboration—often described as a privileged partnership—continues to face scrutiny and debate within the Italian political spectrum, especially amid Meloni’s differing views on EU policy.
foreign (poor) enemy
Italian politics has seen a destabilizing tension between Rome and Brussels, intensified by hard-line immigration policies under the government of the Five Star Movement and now the potential shift to a stronger right. Salvini could return to national power with Meloni’s backing for stricter border controls.
Recent campaign rhetoric has spotlighted immigration, with proposals ranging from naval blockades of migration routes to proposals that asylum claims be processed in centers outside the EU. A rally in support of a regional candidate echoed calls for secure borders and reduced migration.
Within their platform, Meloni and Salvini also advocate exploring asylum procedures outside the EU, a stance that reflects broader debates about European border policy and internal cohesion on human rights standards.
LGBT rights and abortion
The potential expansion of the right-wing coalition raises concerns about tensions with Brussels over rights protections. Meloni has voiced strong opposition to certain EU-level acts perceived as infringing on Italian political choices. Critics worry about how European legal challenges might intersect with Italy’s domestic policies affecting LGBTQ communities and anti-discrimination protections.
Meanwhile, reproductive rights remain a contentious topic. Abortion has been legal in Italy since 1978, following a repeal of fascist-era restrictions. Meloni has characterized reproductive rights debates in a way that some observers view as a departure from longstanding social policy. Debate has also touched on access to abortion services, including the involvement of clinics and the role of medical professionals in providing abortion care in a country with diverse regional practices.