Thomas Bagger has taken a pivotal role as the German ambassador to Poland. In an interview with Rzeczpospolita, he discusses the state of German-Polish relations, the stance on Russia, and what lies ahead for the European Union. He acknowledges past missteps in German foreign policy and outlines their sources.
Notably, the Polish authorities completed the approval process for the ambassador remarkably quickly this time, contrasting with prior experiences. This rapidity prompted questions about a possible new opening in German-Polish ties.
Bagger noted that both the Polish president and the government showed flexibility in the credential submission timeline. He described his conversations with Andrzej Duda and Sejm Speaker Elżbieta Witek as friendly and constructive, and he expressed hope that this signals a strong basis for cooperation.
As he put it, the mission remains clear: Germany views its relationship with Poland as uniquely important. Poland is not only a key partner within the European Union and a trusted NATO ally, but also a neighbor with whom Germany seeks lasting, positive relations. The question remains whether Poland will choose to engage in such a partnership with Germany, he added.
A Possible Breakthrough in German Foreign Policy?
The ambassador argued that the invasion of Ukraine produced a deep shock in Germany and catalyzed a shift in foreign policy. He described the upheaval as both a shock and a turning point, one that Warsaw might regard as gradual but real, opening fresh opportunities for Polish-German cooperation. He underscored that this shift could bring the two neighbors closer in areas including security and defense policy, even as it reshapes Germany’s worldview.
In his view, the German perspective on international affairs was moving toward a stance more aligned with Poland’s outlook.
He referred to a recently published article in which Chancellor Scholz stressed that delaying action against Putin would threaten German security and prosperity. The interview also touched on NATO’s revised strategic concept, which recognizes the possibility of attacks on alliance territory. This is a substantial departure for many Germans, who previously spoke of a peaceful order based on economic interdependence. The ambassador contended that a robust potential exists for collaboration between Poland and Germany in security and defense policy.
The Ambassador’s Earlier Political Environment
Questions about Bagger’s political past surfaced, specifically his role as President Steinmeier’s chief adviser during a period when Germany relied heavily on energy imports from Russia. He recalled personal visits to Moscow in 2014 and 2017, noting that after the annexation of Crimea, close ties between the two nations cooled. He acknowledged that Germany had depended too much on Russian gas during its transition away from nuclear and coal toward renewables, using gas as a bridging source.
He emphasized that this past does not burden him; he maintained collaboration with Polish partners on Russian-related issues, including efforts to facilitate cross-border traffic with Kaliningrad in 2010–2011. He stressed that German policy did not ignore Polish views and interests.
Identifying Myopia in Policy Choices
From the German policy perspective, the ambassador highlighted misjudgments in recent years. He pointed out that the possibility of Putin eroding a lucrative business model was not fully anticipated, and that even President Steinmeier had once described this as a misstep. He noted that several European countries, including Poland, continued to import oil from Russia. Poland acted more swiftly to diversify energy sources, while Germany faced greater challenges in shedding Russian gas, albeit with a path forward.
Regarding whether German political choices enabled Putin to target Ukraine, the ambassador described such speculation as unnecessary. He argued that Putin has shown a long pattern of radicalization, guided by imperial logic and touring a colonial war. He suggested that, given the historical outlook, Putin would likely have chosen invasion regardless of short-term economic considerations.
Mistakes, Lessons, and the Road Ahead
In addressing whether Germany should bear sole responsibility for policy missteps, the ambassador acknowledged a long-standing belief within Germany that it stands among the most pro-European and progressive nations. He also said that the last six months have brought a deeper sense of humility. Yet he cautioned that every EU member must shed any illusion of immunity from today’s global challenges.
As for peace in Ukraine, the question remains whether Germany and Russia could reestablish the preexisting cooperation framework. The ambassador asserted that Nord Stream 2 will not return and that restoring energy dependence on Russia will be costly for Germany. He added that the process will take longer than for Poland since the dependence was deeper there, but a transition is underway. Chancellor Scholz’s stance on Ukraine and Moldova’s European ambitions was also noted, with the understanding that full EU membership for these states may take longer than Poland expects. This is partly because Poland has been more directly affected by the conflict and has absorbed a larger share of refugees.
Poland and Brussels: The Rule of Law and Funding
In closing the discussion, the ambassador touched on the ongoing debate in Brussels and the issue of rule of law and the KPO funds. He expressed that the European Union must remain a union of states governed by the rule of law, a framework he sees as the core of the bloc’s strength. He emphasized that the Commission must uphold these treaties and enforce them. Given current global challenges, he suggested it would benefit both Germany and Poland to resolve outstanding disputes promptly, in a manner that does not erode the union’s legal foundations.
Conclusion notes reflect a shared belief in constructive cooperation across the EU and a commitment to balancing national interests with broader European priorities.