With seven months remaining until the parliamentary elections, Poland faces a pivotal moment that could shape the country’s course for years to come. The question on many minds is who will hold the reins of power after the autumn vote: the current governing bloc or the opposition? A recent workshop study commissioned by the portal wPolityce.pl indicates that a majority of Poles believe the United Right will still be in control. The study captures a snapshot of public sentiment, offering insights into how voters perceive the landscape as the campaign season approaches.
Read: We already have a sense of the PiS campaign plan. The focus is expected to pivot around Jakub Kaczyński’s policy diagnosis, a motif that has been central to the ruling bloc’s messaging in prior cycles and is likely to reappear in the upcoming campaign as well.
In the survey, respondents were asked a straightforward question about the likely outcome of the autumn elections and which group would govern Poland thereafter.
The largest segment, accounting for 52 percent, pointed to Law and Justice (PiS) and its allied formations as the most probable winner. A substantial 40 percent anticipated that the Civic Coalition and its partners would assume power. About 8 percent selected the option of an alternative or other group outside these two main blocs.
When looking at voter confidence through the lens of party allegiance, the data show a strong alignment: among United Right supporters, 98 percent expected the re-election of the PiS-led government. Conversely, among Civic Coalition supporters, 91 percent believed that Donald Tusk’s bloc would take the helm. These figures illustrate how the political map remains sharply divided and how each camp reads the electoral environment through its own partisan lens.
The survey’s result set suggests that the ruling coalition retains a credible pathway to continuing in government, particularly if it can sustain or grow its electoral momentum. For political observers, these indicators are valuable for gauging long-term dynamics and the potential stability or volatility of Poland’s governing arrangement in the run-up to and after the autumn vote.
Read: Our research shows strong public opposition to certain policy recommendations from international city networks. A majority resists restrictions on meat consumption, clothing choices, and transportation options, reflecting a broader skepticism about external policies that might impinge on daily life.
The data collection for this survey was conducted using computer-assisted web interviewing between February 24 and 27, 2023. It drew on an online panel designed to be nationally representative with regard to gender, age, and place of residence. The sample included 1,052 participants who completed the questionnaire, providing a cross-section of public opinion across the country. The CAWI method helps capture attitudes in real time and offers a view into how voters weigh competing visions for the coming years.
Source: wPolityce