The campaign is three days away, and several political groups have been quietly tallying the potential outcomes and how abstaining could shift results in a tightly contested regional race. The balance could tilt one way or another depending on which coalitions can mobilize voters who are teetering on the edge of participation. In the eyes of the left, this has sparked concern as Botànic supporters work to rally their bases, wary that government wear and tear might exact a price. The opposition suspects that a strategic strike on the presidency of the Consell could hinge on only a handful of votes.
Historically, abstention has been a constant in autonomous elections in the Valencian Community, with turnout patterns showing similar rhythms across elections. Since 1983, participation has hovered around 30 percent, peaking at 32.2 percent in 1999 and dipping to 24 percent in 1995 when the PP controlled the Generalitat. In the last election cycle, held in 2019, turnout stood at 26.3 percent.
In the Alicante province, abstention has followed a slightly different arc, with generally higher rates than Valencia and Castellón, and thus above the regional average. The high point arrived in 2015 at 34 percent, while the low point logged in 1995 at 24.8 percent. In the 2019 elections, turnout reached 27.9 percent.
All signs point to abstention being a present factor once again in the May 28 elections, with rates likely echoing historical patterns. This becomes crucial in a scenario where some polls warn that the Generalitat Government could be decided by a slim margin and where coalitions might be reorganized around Botànic. Unides Podem is seen as polling at or just above the 5 percent threshold.
Lluís Catalá, a sociology PhD and a professor at the University of Alicante, explains that high abstention has historically hurt the left through voter disillusionment. Since 2010, he adds, the right has been damaged by corruption cases as well.
Facing these elections, the left finds itself particularly vulnerable to abstention. Catalá notes that only one out of three elections saw progressive voters turning out, with examples such as the 2004 general election that coincided with the 11-M attacks. He underscores that the political climate has shifted since then, with some parties that gained momentum having already entered government and a sense of division tied to the emergence and absence of Sumar and the pact with United We Can. All this has created fertile ground for abstention to take hold.
Victoria Rodríguez, a political science and management professor at Miguel Hernández University, observes that like the PP, the PSOE tends to have a more loyal base, making abstentions potentially harmful to them. She notes that smaller parties also rely on mobilization to stay competitive, while warning that meaningful political change usually comes with higher participation. Regarding perceived government fatigue, she points out that this may affect the Socialists more, given they hold the presidency.
Given these dynamics, it is no surprise that all parties, spanning the political spectrum, are focusing on mobilization. Analysts predict participation could surpass 20 percent during the campaign, with another 10 percent bunched up in the final week as voters decide to cast ballots.
So what are the different forces doing in this highly nuanced landscape? PSPV campaign manager Miquel Soler states that the aim is to encourage every eligible citizen to vote because the elections directly affect people’s lives. He emphasizes that the campaign is designed to avoid apathy and ensure people understand the stakes, with extensive outreach to young voters and first-time participants.
Compromís spokesperson Alberto Ibáñez says the focus is on explaining the party’s platform and making it clear that a few votes could determine whether progress continues or regresses. Special attention is given to the young electorate through channels like TikTok and podcasts to safeguard momentum.
César Lledó, campaign manager for Unides Podem, believes the bloc will surpass the 5 percent threshold. He states confidence based on internal and external polls that place the party well above that mark, while also organizing strategic electoral routes through multiple municipalities to maximize turnout among supporters.
The right is also in full campaign mode. Miguel Barrachina, the PP campaign manager, contends that abstention does not help right-wing groups and that the party historically achieved stronger results when more people vote. The party continues to push cross-issues aimed at appealing to discontent across the left.
Election manager Fernando Llopis from Ciudadanos remains optimistic despite unfavorable poll trends. He asserts that there is no single coalition that can replace their political ideology and that a series of events and community engagement efforts will sustain support.
Finally, Vox candidate for the Alicante autonomous election, Ana Vega, expresses modest confidence in a loyal base but concedes that the race will be tight and that efforts to broaden support are essential. The campaign team continues to refine outreach strategies accordingly.