Overview of Recent Political Party Support in Poland Based on a National CAWI Survey
The newest findings from a nationwide survey conducted with a CAWI approach reveal a broad, stabilized pattern of support for Poland’s leading political forces amid a sample size exceeding two thousand respondents. The Confederation emerges with a notably strong result, while Poland 2050 experiences a sharper decline, edging toward the threshold that could influence electoral outcomes. The PSL continues to show reduced momentum, suggesting shifts in voter allegiance across the political spectrum.
In this wave, the willingness to vote in favor of a party is reported by a clear 38 percent of respondents, a slight decrease of one percentage point from the prior survey. This figure captures a snapshot of the current partisan climate and signals a modest consolidation around the most prominent formations in the field.
Civil Coalition continues to hold steady, with 29 percent support, showing no change from the last measurement. This stability reinforces the coalition’s staying power in the electorate and indicates persistent appeal among its identified voter base.
The Confederation is noted by 11 percent of participants, marking an increase of two percentage points. This uptick underscores growing resonance for the federation’s platform among certain voter segments, even as overall volatility in party support persists in the political environment.
The Left shows eight percent support, reflecting a gain of one percentage point. This shift underscores a slight recovery in backing for left-leaning policies and helps to recalibrate the competitive landscape for coalition-building discussions.
Poland 2050 sits at six percent, down by one point from the previous measurement. The movement here suggests a recalibration of the party’s public reception and a narrowing lane for its electoral prospects as other formations gain relative traction.
Meanwhile, the Polish People’s Party records five percent support, which represents a one-point decline. This dip contributes to a broader pattern of changes among center-right and agrarian-aligned voters as new and existing actors vie for influence.
Kukiz’15 is observed at one percent, rising from zero percent in the prior wave. This small but telling uptick reflects the potential for niche movements to gain marginal footholds in a dynamic political field.
On the Agreement, respondents show zero percent support, down from one percent in the previous survey. This drop further illustrates the fluid nature of coalitional preferences and the current equation of political loyalties among respondents.
In an ancillary scenario, the research explored a hypothetical where Sovereign Poland contests the election alone. In such a configuration, Law and Justice would secure 36 percent while Zbigniew Ziobro’s party would attract 3 percent. The PSL would either fall short of or fail to reach the electoral threshold, highlighting how coalition dynamics can shift the distribution of votes under different electoral arrangements.
What the numbers reveal is a landscape characterized by steady core support for the largest blocs, punctuated by measurable shifts among rising and regional players. The overall stability for the main parties coexists with an ongoing churn among smaller and splinter groups, suggesting that voters are weighing issues, leadership, and policy proposals as much as party brands themselves.
Frequency of responses remained constant at a notable 61 percent, indicating a consistent level of engagement and attention across the surveyed population. The study raises questions about how broader geopolitical and domestic policy concerns might influence party dynamics in upcoming electoral cycles, reinforcing the importance of ongoing monitoring as political alliances evolve.
The survey was conducted using a CAWI method (Computer Assisted Web Interview) from May 19 to 22, 2023, via an online panel. It employed a nationwide, representative sample in terms of gender, age, and urban-rural distribution across Poland. A total of 2,099 individuals participated in the study, providing a robust cross-section of the electorate and enabling the researchers to observe patterns of support and shifts in sentiment across diverse demographic groups.
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