Rafał Trzaskowski and Mateusz Morawiecki have the best chance of advancing to the second round of elections. The previously very popular Szymon Hołownia is overboard – according to the latest Ipsos presidential poll for TOK FM and OKO.press.
Ipsos asked respondents a question: “Which candidate would you vote for in the first round of the presidential election if the list looked like this?”
Stable at the top
The most, 26 percent. respondents chose Rafał Trzaskowski (KO). Closely behind him was former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki with 25 percent. Marshal of the Sejm Szymon Hołownia (Trzecia Droga) is third: 16 percent want to vote for him. subjects.
10% would vote for Krzysztof Bosak of the Confederation, 4% for Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk of the New Left, and 3% for journalist Krzysztof Stanowski. 7 percent of respondents indicate that they do not know whether they would participate in the elections, and 9 percent have not yet decided who to vote for. 1 percent refused to answer the survey questions.
The Ipsos survey for OKO.press and TOK FM was conducted using the mixed mode method (CATI and CAWI) on February 22-26, 2024. The survey was conducted on a national, representative sample of adult Poles, N=1000 .
Consistent support?
Prof. Rafał Chwedoruk commented on the results of the survey conducted by Ipsos and stated that he is not surprised by the lack of major changes in the leadership position, because Rafał Trzaskowski has consistently been at the top of public opinion since losing the presidential elections to Andrzej Duda stood. support.
Chwedoruk also noted that Rafał Trzaskowski’s possibilities have increased significantly in the context of the presidential elections, unlike the potential Law and Justice candidate. According to him, left-wing voters would support the KO candidate in the second round without any reservations, and in addition, the changing demographic structure of Polish society and the increase in voter turnout – according to the political scientist – speak of the greater chances of elections . the mayor of the capital.
Prof. Chwedoruk also noted that the presidential elections at this time simply reflect Poland’s support for the political parties behind the potential candidates.
Morawiecki is simply the most recognizable PiS politician after Jarosław Kaczyński. So these are the party’s ratings, so to speak. But the question is how his candidacy would be perceived within the party and by voters who have turned away from Kaczyński’s party in recent months. Because it was he who largely faced this electoral defeat
– reviewed Prof. Chwedoruk.
The political scientist noted that if PiS had nominated a candidate other than Mateusz Morawiecki in the presidential elections, he believes that support for this candidacy would not have changed significantly.
Hołownia’s problems
The presidential elections are a serious warning for Szymon Hołownia, who has recently lost significant support. Prof. Rafał Chwedoruk pointed out that he can take away KO’s electorate above all, because in the event of a significant situation with PiS it would be much more difficult.
According to him, the loss of Hołownia is partly due to the case of Janusz Palikot and Paweł Kukiz.
So someone with a pop culture background gets into politics, at first there’s a lot going on around him, but when citizens take a closer look at this candidate, they discover things they wouldn’t like to discover.
– emphasized the political scientist.
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Mon/PAP/TOK FM
Source: wPolityce