“The results show that the exit poll slightly overestimated the opposition. It could turn out that the United Right may not need more than 30 votes for the next term, but only a dozen votes will be enough,” says Prof. WPolityce.pl. Arkadiusz Jabłoński, sociologist at the Catholic University of Lublin.
READ ALSO: REPORT. The votes are being counted. Data have been received for 60.15 percent. circuits. When will we know the official results? The National Electoral Commission announced the date. BILL
wPolityce.pl: How do you assess the election results so far and what scenarios can we expect?
Prof. Arkadiusz Jabloński: The results show that the exit poll slightly overestimated the opposition. It may turn out that the United Right may not need more than thirty votes for the next term, but only ten votes will be enough.
Law and Justice has won the House of Representatives elections for the third time. However, the Civic Coalition has undoubtedly succeeded in mobilizing its electorate to, together with the Third Way and the Left, threaten the absolute majority for the government.
It also seems that – although the Confederation’s results have improved compared to the exit poll – the Confederation should be considered the biggest loser in these elections.
Moreover, even Sławomir Mentzen – probably the only leader – not only admitted the defeat, but also described it as ‘huge’.
Mr Sławomir Mentzen conducted an election campaign in which he consciously abandoned the ideological message and counted on the kind of support that came from a certain freshness and a different way of being. However, this was likely interpreted as a far-reaching political cynicism, which likely turned many voters who were anticipating a new but more idealistic political movement away from the Confederacy, preventing them from voting or transferring their support. to other parties.
Not only the United Right may have problems forming a government, but also this bloc of three left-liberal opposition groups: KO + Left + Third Way – it is not known to what extent the three groups will be able to reach an agreement and to keep this. a stable coalition. What do you think the future government could look like?
It is of course more likely that the United Right will succeed in forming a government. Although, as is often said, the current ruling party is unable to form a coalition, and furthermore, each of the individual opposition parties says that they will not join PiS, but it must be emphasized that we still have to In other situations, to reach an agreement, such as this opposition bloc. We could count about ten leaders alone, and there are enough separate interests and differences in worldviews to come to the conclusion that we may not be on the right track with PiS on several issues, but at least there is stability and a significant majority, with which you can build a number of sustainable political enterprises.
What is also likely to be crucial is what President Andrzej Duda said in an interview for Polsat News a week before the elections: that he will entrust the mission of forming a government to the party that wins the elections. Would this mean the party/coalition that won the most votes on its own, i.e. PiS?
Here we have the first step that is to be expected. It seems to me that in such a situation about a month will pass between the announcement of the final election results and the first session of the Sejm, and the United Right will probably spend this time conducting various kinds of conversations. Whether it concerns groups of politicians or individual parliamentarians who are closer to their positions. In any case, we have already taken the first step indicated by the president.
The Prime Minister of the United Right may be given a task that, contrary to appearances, is not a mission of failure, but even one that can succeed.
Individual opposition politicians even try to influence the president, for example by stating that he should first consult with the parties that could form a governing coalition, or even that the majority already exists and that the three opposition blocs are already united.
The further the ability to create this clear, absolute majority diminishes, the more they will stomp their feet and shout at the president. I imagine more KOD demonstrations where they will try to force the president to make a decision that goes against political customs. The first Prime Minister, who must receive an absolute majority of support in the Sejm, was traditionally always chosen from the winning party.
So if it turns out that it will be difficult for the opposition to form its own government, it will at least again try to destabilize and indicate in various ways that there is something wrong with Polish democracy.
In the meantime, as evidenced by the turnout in the elections, Polish democracy is doing extremely well. However, the opposition has a lot to blame for itself in a situation where it has not only undemocratically encouraged a boycott of the referendum, but even members of various election commissions have succumbed to these beliefs and, in violation of the electoral law, even encouraged voters not to accept the referendum. card.
And if this record turnout ultimately comes at the expense of the opposition, are we likely to also hear about ‘falsehoods’ or the ‘collapse of democracy’?
To me, Donald Tusk’s first speech was a mystery. He spoke as if he were already talking about the final election results. Likewise, Włodzimierz Czarzasty reiterated that they would not let this victory be taken from them, as if it had already been given to them.
This sets the stage for a possible undermining of the democratic election outcome if it turns out unfavorable for the opposition.
And we haven’t touched on this issue yet, but can PiS also form a minority government, or can it turn out that there is no such need?
I don’t think there will be that need. If PiS does not actually achieve an absolute majority, the opposition will probably succeed, at least for the first few months. Moreover, in the second step, the Sejm appoints the Prime Minister and if they manage to acquire, for example, the position of Chairman of the Sejm more quickly, they will be able to form a majority government, and possibly only in the third step. create a government with the support of only the majority, but without the need for an absolute majority. An alternative such as a possible minority government will probably not come until early next year.
Thank you very much for the interview.
READ ALSO: Brudziński: We won. It seems to me that the president will entrust PiS with the mission of forming a government. The obvious candidate is Mateusz Morawiecki
Source: wPolityce