El anuncio de Puigdemont de que será candidato, renuncia a Europa y volverá a Catalunya si tiene mayoría para ser investido, así como la última encuesta del CEO (el Cis catalán), han convertido las recién convocadas elecciones del 12-M en el centro del interés informativo.
There is more at stake than personalities. Two main battles are emerging, each tightly connected to the other. One centers on Illa’s effort to secure and broaden the lead suggested by polls. The other pits the leader of the pro‑independence bloc, president Aragonès, ERC’s candidate, against Carles Puigdemont, the former president ousted in 2017 under Article 155 who wants to be reinstated.
The independence movement is not enjoying a strong moment. The polling outfit has reported that, for nearly four years, Catalans opposed to independence (now 51%) outnumber its supporters (42%). Likewise, the current chief concern—drought and climate change—appears far removed from the sovereignist impulse. As with prior surveys, the CEO confirms Salvador Illa’s edge. The PSC would win on March 12 in both vote share (roughly 25–29%) and seats (roughly 35–42), surpassing the 33 seats won in 2021. In the most optimistic projections, the PSC could lead by up to ten seats over ERC and thirteen over Junts.
The Illa campaign is about preserving and expanding this advantage, because with 42 seats he would still fall short of the 68 needed for investiture, forcing potential coalitions. This becomes more plausible if the independentist bloc (ERC, Junts, and the CUP) stays within about 57 seats, far from the 68 required. Even more challenging if their total reaches 71 in the upper range. A coalition of ERC, Junts, and the CUP did not fare well in 2021, breaking when Junts decided to leave the ERC‑led government.
The second battle is between ERC and Junts. Current polling shows a small edge for ERC over Junts, which is trending upward. Because the pro‑independence vote relies on shared momentum, both ERC and Junts need to grow their totals at the expense of the other and of the CUP to overtake the PSC, reach first place, and pressure the other side to back their investiture. Provided that, between the two parties and the CUP, they manage to hit 68 seats.
ERC argues that weariness from governance weighs on its candidacy, though Aragonès is viewed more favorably than Puigdemont, and even Illa runs a strong, if not impossible, campaign. ERC leans toward pragmatism, and the economy minister Natàlia Mas has been explicit: independence is desirable but, for the moment, hospitals require funding. The phrase “for the moment” is telling, a reminder that practical needs often outrun ideological purity.
Puigdemont, meanwhile, has struck a different tone. Despite having coordinated with Madrid in the past, he rejects any concerted ERC dialogue with the central government. He lays out two paths: refuse to abandon the unilateral route from 2017 unless Madrid agrees to a referendum, and lean on the international cachet of a president in exile who has nudged PSOE toward amnesty. In the polling, he is not as highly rated as Aragonès or Junqueras, yet he is perceived as the preferred president by a share of voters in a suggestive EL PERIÓDICO survey: about 21% versus 18.1% for Illa and 16.3% for Aragonès. Still, Puigdemont’s strategic weakness remains: he lacks a clear program beyond image, the core independence line, and some conservative stances on inheritance and immigration. The “for the moment” sentiment matters little to him and his camp; what he needs is a strong running mate for televised debates. In the past, Laura Borràs brought audacity to the stage, but she appears unlikely to return. The field wonders who could pair with Puigdemont: Turull is unavailable, Rull could be considered, Batet is powerful in the Parliament but not widely known, Nogueras speaks with a simple, direct voice, and others are speculated.
Some observers even hint at a dramatic move: a bold challenge to the State by returning to Catalonia shortly before the elections, risking imprisonment until amnesty takes effect.
One certainty remains: the two independentist candidates will push hard to widen their gap with Illa, aiming to force a scenario where the other side must back their investiture. Will ERC bend toward Puigdemont, or will Puigdemont back Aragonès? Either outcome leaves Illa pressed to defend the lead and, potentially, to negotiate with partners if the majority coalition fails to materialize.