Ahead of the vote, the presidency of Illa seems farther away than ever. The political landscape, volatile for some time, keeps shifting the variables that could bring different outcomes into play.
In the end, three weighty factors cool the mood at the Pallars street headquarters: first, Puigdemont is waging a battle and is the key to reaching the Moncloa; second, ERC cannot afford to toy with the Socialists and, if they are not playing it cool, show signs of changing course toward a national axis; and third, the PP holds the tie breakers for two crucial votes, both the Parliament presidency and the investiture, depending on whether they back a Collboni plan or reject it. At this moment, Illa only has Comuns in his corner and nothing else is guaranteed, balancing with Puigdemont who also has no guarantees, yet expectations have opened up. In Catalonia, the game is messier than ever.
On top of that, there is the European elections to contend with. Although those elections are the most antiseptic of politics, they will have real consequences for Spain. If the PP defeats the PSOE, the first unfavorable pivot for Sánchez will have taken shape, and even more so if the far right alliance rises to a second position in Europe. At the same time, Irene Montero’s likely surge past the Sumar candidate adds pressure on Sánchez, who could see the left’s flank destabilized again, despite Yolanda Díaz’s position. Conversely, if the PSOE wins over the PP as the CIS often suggests, options stay open because a Sánchez re-election could tempt a snap election if he feels bolstered by better results. All this becomes more likely if there is no agreement in Catalunya with Puigdemont and pressure on the Moncloa grows.
Now Feijóo steps forward with the option of a motion of no confidence. It is true, from the PP leader’s perspective, that he has been very prudent in presenting it, but the idea that Junts could still be part of the equation is not unimaginable. That brings us back to Catalonia, the real battlefield. Is it possible to imagine Junts abstaining on a PP no-confidence motion? Hard to say, but why not. Puigdemont has made clear there is no complicity or trust with Sánchez. He notes that both PP and PSOE have shared responsibility for repression of the independence movement, and the next moves depend on what happens in Catalonia, with the sour memory of the PSC-PP operation in Barcelona that robbed Trias of the mayoralty. It is also necessary to see how amnesty develops and to note that the PSOE’s handling of the BOE timelines and the dirty plays regarding Aragonès’s Catalan elections date complicate things. There is a confidence pact of investiture, but the road ahead remains increasingly rocky.
The main question is whether Junts will push politics to the very end, as they have done since the investiture agreements. In other words, will they make clear that Puigdemont’s investiture is nonnegotiable, and that if the PSOE vetoes it, there will be consequences. Junts cannot hint at bringing Sánchez down and then retreat. Comín has already floated that hypothesis, but it can only be credible if there is real will to act, or it would look ridiculous. Of course, Sánchez could slam the table and call elections, but that move would be his last if it backfires.
Still, the balance has shifted. It now seems more likely that Puigdemont’s investiture or a re-run of elections will occur rather than Illa’s presidency, unless ERC ties the socialist hands again. It remains difficult, because the very agreements with the Socialists have strangled the Republicans. Either way, all pieces stay on the board and the chess match remains highly unpredictable.