Nearly 21 million Venezuelans on the electoral roll were eligible to vote this Sunday in the opposition primary, a crucial step toward selecting a unified candidate to challenge Nicolas Maduro in elections planned for the second half of 2024. The internal contest tests aspects beyond party lines, including how Colombia handles alignment with the political agreement Maduro and his opponents signed in Barbados with support from Norway and the United States and the European Union. The agreement appears to aim at gradually easing sanctions on Caracas if the vote is transparent and observers are present next year. The Barbados document underscores the right of every political actor to freely choose a candidate for presidential elections.
In this broad, ambitious framework, the primary features 11 candidates, yet early signals point toward a likely frontrunner: the far‑right figure Maria Corina Machado, who has emerged as a leading contender. The Barbados accord remains a touchstone in this race. Vente Venezuela, a party that has faced disqualification from elective positions by the Comptroller’s Office during civil unrest in 2014, must contend with ongoing scrutiny. Elvis Amoroso, who heads the National Electoral Council, has accused Machado’s camp of pushing for foreign sanctions against the Miraflores Palace. Last June, a prior sanction was extended for another 15 years. Even as the primary campaigns heated up, Machado had already established herself as a potential favorite.
Following the handshake between government and opposition representatives in Barbados, a number of political prisoners were released in Caracas, a move welcomed by Washington. Analysts, however, warn that tensions could reappear if Machado wins the primaries and existing bans remain in place.
Detour
The path to the primary was not smooth. Henrique Capriles, another leader disqualified by the Comptroller’s Office the prior week, withdrew, saying he wanted to contribute with a gesture of appointing a candidate through consensus rather than a top‑down decision. Machado responded firmly, urging a robust turnout on October 22 as a critical first step in defeating Maduro and uniting the country. She called on both supporters and opponents to vote early, stay alert, and count ballots carefully, emphasizing the need to defend the vote at every stage and to seize the opportunity without letting outside forces steal it.
On Friday night, Democratic Action, a social democratic party, urged postponement of the internal elections due to irregularities. The National Primary Commission rejected the demand, encouraging citizens to participate at the 3,000 polling stations across the country and in 77 cities abroad, including about 55,000 Venezuelans in Spain. The party framed the primary as a mechanism to reconcile Venezuelans and to build a unitary candidacy for the future.
Possible scenarios
Some anti‑establishment factions chose to run the process without formal support from the National Electoral Council. The electoral board had previously suggested technical assistance and had proposed holding the primary at the end of November. Regardless of the exact timetable, the expected outcome of the internal race is seen as pivotal in revealing how the opposition and government disagreements will surface in the months ahead. Analyst Luis Vicente León argues that Machado is likely to win, insisting that during the negotiation period the government did not authorize any form of approval. If Machado’s victory is confirmed, two paths seem possible for Vente Venezuela: declare the win and challenge the Barbados accord or step aside as Capriles did. Observers note that Machado’s next moves could be shaped by the reaction of the United States.
León also highlights that the candidate who finishes second should be watched closely if she garners a substantial share of votes. If that candidate cannot register, they may press to become the unitary candidate in place of the disqualified runner. The evolving dynamics of the vote will influence the broader political landscape as the country prepares for future elections.