Venezuelans face a presidential vote scheduled for July 28 in a political landscape crowded with uncertainty. The National Electoral Council set a final deadline of March 25 to register candidates. Yet a number of events could unfold before Monday, potentially complicating the path to the ballots. María Corina Machado, the presidential candidate allied with the Platform Unitaria (PU), has been barred from participating in the election and has accused the recent arrests of two Vente Venezuela party members and seven more campaign team members of being acts of political retaliation by the Maduro government. She argues that these moves aim to stall the electoral process.
Machado faces a developing narrative about her eligibility, with expectations growing around an official decision that she cannot compete due to a standing prohibition. This would open the door to backing a consensus opposition candidate who could leverage Machado’s public profile to defeat Nicolas Maduro. The possibility of her stepping aside has grown more evident in recent hours.
“The regime can try to delay the transition through force, but it cannot stop it. The shift is already underway,” commented after Henry Alviárez and Dignora Hernández were detained. Prosecutor Tarek William Saab allegedly linked them to efforts to stir violence in order to promote Machado’s candidacy. A right-wing leader described Saab as a “fiscal of terror” and a “liar.”
The Democratic Platform Unit (PU), which has represented the opposition in talks with the government that culminated in a Barbados agreement to ensure a transparent vote without bans, expressed strong disapproval of the arrests of Hernández and Alviarez. They called it a fresh attack and a criminalization of political action. Henrique Capriles, who also faces a state ban, condemned the arrests, stating that those who want to stay in power at any cost are pressing against opponents who rely on the ballot for change.
The U.S. Undersecretary of State for the Western Hemisphere, Brian Nichols, noted that the growing assaults by Maduro against civil society and political actors contradict Barbados’s commitments but will not silence the Venezuelan people’s democratic aspirations. Washington has resumed targeted sanctions in response to the latest events.
Questioning the official account
Saab previously relied on two videos to implicate Machado’s close associates. Machado has said the timing of the arrests is not accidental, as the clock ticks toward presenting candidates to the CNE. She views the arrests as a sign of government weakness because officials feel they are losing control.
Machado argues that the measures taken by Saab go against the Barbados Agreement signed last October with international backing. She asserts that all terms have been fulfilled on her side, and now the government must be held to the same standard and held accountable.
New pressures have intensified the political climate. Maduro has largely kept quiet in recent days after being named the likely presidential candidate, while Diosdado Cabello spoke for the government, accusing opponents of persecuting them while promising fair defense rights for all. He accused adversaries of calling for invasions, blockades, and even a foreign military intervention.
Relations between Miraflores Palace and the Platform Unitaria have remained tense since October, when the government criticized Machado’s primary victory as invalid. In the months that followed, Machado’s Vente Venezuela and Capriles faced additional bans. The year began with Saab alleging several assassination plots against Maduro, followed by a crackdown that extended to the Caracas office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights. Separately, the National Assembly approved a hate-law that critics argue targets the opposition.