The Venezuelan political scene is heating up amid pressing economic and social conditions that offer little hope for peace. A unitary platform uniting a broad segment of the anti-Mmadurista spectrum has begun the nomination process for the primary elections scheduled for 22 October. The winner is expected to challenge Nicolás Maduro, who has held power for a decade, in the 2024 presidential election, contingent on party agreements and international approval.
At least 13 leaders have signaled their intent to participate in this internal contest. The deadline is 23 June. Among the hopefuls are Henrique Capriles, the former governor of Miranda, who narrowly lost two elections to Hugo Chávez and Maduro; on the far right, former aide María Corina Machado; Andrés Velásquez from La Causa R and Delsa Solórzano have also expressed interest. Freddy Superlano will represent Leopoldo López’s party Voluntad Popular, and former deputy Juan Guaidó is another prominent figure. The term “ex-president in charge” refers to the recent period when leadership temporarily shifted abroad, amid a political eclipse marked by exile.
The National Primary Commission (CNP) announced a notable development: given the large Venezuelan diaspora, which the United Nations estimates at over seven million, Venezuelans abroad will be able to participate in the primaries from the United States. Polling stations will be set up in fifteen U.S. states, ten locations in Colombia, eight in Spain, five in Brazil, four in Italy, four in Chile, three in Mexico, three in Canada, three in Portugal, two in Argentina, two in Ecuador, and numerous sites in Peru. CNP head Jesús María Casal explained that the polling centers will allow migrants to update their residence information on a digital platform so they can cast their preferences.
innovative enterprise
Casal expressed gratitude for the broad support that made participation possible for citizens who have left the country, emphasizing that their involvement could shape political change in Venezuela. He hinted that the CNP might deliver a pivotal moment that becomes a major political event.
Casal acknowledged the value of international attention and shared thanks in a public post, noting that the outreach extends to Venezuelans overseas who wish to contribute to the country’s future. This message circulated through social media in early June.
some unknowns
The path to the elections remains uncertain and fraught with concerns, including the role of technical assistance from the United States. The National Electoral Council (CNE) has set 22 October as the election date. A contentious issue is the participation of a party body largely aligned with the government, which some opposition factions oppose. Casal continues to seek cooperation with the state, hoping it will be part of a broader agreement with the Maduro camp to ensure credible elections in 2024.
Logistics are a major focus: adequate voting center infrastructure, ballot machines, and comprehensive pre-election communication to Venezuelans abroad. The goal is to ensure participation is inclusive, with a pre-election call that reaches voters wherever they reside. A 15-year ban on elective office, imposed in 2017 during a period of intense political conflict, remains a topic of discussion. The question remains whether candidates can participate without government consent, given past political pressures.
The capillary measure, which sidelined Capriles from electoral competition for years, is framed by alleged administrative irregularities during his rule in Miranda. He maintains his innocence and argues the charges are politically motivated.
Observing the situation, the EU’s election observers warned in their final report about the lack of legal clarity that has led to arbitrary disqualifications. Restoring political rights is listed among the themes in ongoing negotiations mediated by Norway between Maduro’s side and Venezuelan opponents. In late April, twenty countries, including the United States, supported lifting sanctions if free elections are held next year. The collective call remains for a transparent and fair electoral process that reflects the will of the people.
Many in the Venezuelan movement are rallying around the idea of broad civic engagement to steer the nation toward reform.
The broader economy continues to be a concern. Economists and business groups warn of renewed crisis, while the country faces a projected contraction in GDP and inflation pressures. The central bank notes ongoing volatility, and wage adjustments reflect the difficulty of maintaining purchasing power. Advocates for reform point to political changes as a possible driver for improved economic stability, with many calling for credible electoral guarantees in the near term.
In this climate, the opposition seeks to align around a single candidate who can unite different factions and appeal to voters both inside and outside the country. The road ahead is uncertain, but the momentum for change persists, with Venezuelans abroad watching closely and participating where possible.