The Venezuelan crisis continues to unfold with unsettling signs of forecasted tension: cities are increasingly militarized, and a de facto curfew follows widespread refusals to accept Nicolás Maduro’s proclaimed election victory. The opposition disputes the result, circulating copies of ballots as purported evidence of a sweeping win by Edmundo González Urrutia, a claim the government rejects. Gustavo Petro, the first leftist president of Colombia, took office in 2022 and has sought to mediate internal Venezuelan conflict, though his diplomacy has achieved limited progress. Within 72 hours of the electoral announcement, he urged Maduro’s Palacio de Miraflores to take bold steps to halt further deterioration. He warned that significant doubts about the electoral process could push the country toward deep-seated, violent polarization with lasting consequences of division.
Petro proposed a path not far removed from the conclusions discussed by Joe Biden and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva during a phone call: invite the Venezuelan government to let the elections conclude peacefully, with transparent vote counting, verifiable ballots, and international professional oversight of the process. He also called for an immediate cessation of violence that could lead to further deaths before the tally was completed. The post-election unrest had already claimed 11 lives, including two minors, and led to 749 arrests according to the country’s prosecutor general. The UN mission in Venezuela detected a renewed, accelerated machinery of repression that had not been dismantled. Maduro asserted state power through security forces and signaled readiness to mobilize again to “win the street.” Petro’s approach at that moment resembled offering a framework for a government–opposition agreement that would uphold maximum respect for those who did not prevail in the vote, with the possibility of presenting this agreement as a unilateral declaration to the United Nations Security Council.
Role of the United States
Facing the prospect of new American sanctions, the Colombian president pressed Washington to suspend blockades and measures that harm Venezuelan citizens, arguing such actions worsen hunger, violence, and displacement. He noted that the conflict in Venezuela has global dimensions. He suggested that migration to the United States from Latin America would decline if these sanctions were lifted. He described a world where international norms are strained, children are harmed with impunity, and neighboring nations confront external powers whose interests shape the region. He added that Maduro bears a heavy responsibility to honor the spirit of Hugo Chávez and to allow the Venezuelan people to regain peace as the electoral process concludes with transparency, regardless of the outcome.
Center for Carter’s position
The Carter Center, a long-time observer of Venezuelan elections, offered a cautious assessment during the Caracas evening. It stated that the 2024 electoral process did not meet international standards of electoral integrity in several critical stages and breached multiple provisions of Venezuela’s own law. The elections occurred amid restricted freedoms affecting political actors, civil society groups, and media. Throughout the process, authorities showed clear bias in favor of the government and against opposition candidates. Yet, the public demonstrated in large, peaceful fashion on July 28 to express their preferences. The voting day proceeded civically, but observers noted that the lack of transparent result dissemination diminished the effort’s credibility.
Harder times ahead
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez voiced concern about developments, urging transparency in the vote tally and calm as guarantees of rights for all Venezuelans. Former Chilean president Michelle Bachelet urged full transparency from the CNE. Maduro’s latest statements hinted at a hard line, with the government portraying force as necessary to prevent a coup allegedly backed by narcotrafficking in Colombia, the United States, and influential global actors. Barricades, toppled statues, protests, and street chants demanding Maduro’s departure marked a tense social climate. The opposition contends that Maduro is engineering an autogolpe. A heightened security posture followed, with Maduro ordering the National Bolivarian Armed Forces and police to monitor hot zones in Caracas and other cities, while promising a confidential public data platform to collect reports about those perceived as threats to the people, aiming for swift justice.
Fragmentation
Maduro presented his struggle as part of a historic lineage of antifascism and the Spanish Republic. Those claims clash with a reality where Latin America remains divided. Argentina’s Milei has called for a decisive move to topple Maduro, while Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia pursue mediation that currently seems unlikely. In streets and neighborhoods across Venezuela, the risk of confrontation remains. Leaders exchange statements that underscore a fragile balance of power. The president welcomed cordial congratulations from Haitham Al Ghais, incoming secretary general of OPEC, calling it an acknowledgment of the will of the Venezuelan people expressed through their vote. Maduro pledged continued efforts toward energy stability that would benefit the region.
Final note