CaixaBank Research projects that Valencia Community will expand by 1.9% in 2023, a pace above the national forecast of 1.3% for Spain. This makes the region one of the most dynamic parts of the country.
The Valencian economy mirrors Spain’s overall trajectory. CaixaBank Research estimates show Valencia’s GDP grew by 5.1% in 2022 (5.5% on average), driven mainly by renewed domestic tourism and stronger consumption supported by a robust labor market. The region has so far absorbed global supply disruptions less severely than expected, helping its growth compared with other areas.
The outlook for 2023 anticipates 1.9% GDP growth, just above the national rate and reinforcing Valencia as a leading growth hub. Although rising inflation and higher interest rates may temper consumption and investment, progress in resolving supply bottlenecks and lower energy prices are expected to boost industrial activity and exports across the region.
Employment trends show an improvement that outpaces the national average. In 2022, the number of registered workers rose by 4.7% year over year, higher than the 3.9% seen in the country as a whole. Although January 2023 saw a softer pace at 2.3%, the base level of employment remained 9.0% higher than January 2019, with construction and accommodation leading the gains. The unemployment rate stood at 13.5% in late 2022, a bit above the national average but showing clear improvement from previous years, and moving toward pre-pandemic levels as the year closed.
Consumer spending in Valencian markets slowed less than in the wider economy. Retail activity by volume stagnated in 2022, a softer decline than the national outcome of 1.0% and notably below the 2019 levels by 2.3%. This resilience aligns with the stronger household income and employment gains seen in the region, supporting continued demand in local commerce.
The industrial sector followed a parallel path to the national trend. Industrial production in Valencia rose 2.4% in 2022, matching Spain’s overall pace, and by 3.3% above the 2019 level, contrasting with a slight national dip in some segments. This shows the region maintaining momentum as supply chains stabilize and manufacturing activity benefits from competitive costs and ongoing demand.
Valencian goods exports performed solidly in 2022 after a modest prior year. Exports climbed 23.0% year over year through the first eleven months, sitting just below the national average of 23.6%. Strength in semi-finished goods and especially automobiles played a prominent role, helping to lift regional exports to 25.7% above 2019 levels while nationwide figures rose by about 33.0%. The export mix reflects a diversified manufacturing base and strong demand from both domestic and overseas buyers.
Tourism in Valencia remains a sizable share of the regional economy, yet the area is less dependent on international visitors than Spain as a whole. In 2022, both domestic and international overnight stays rose by 53.6% compared to the previous year, with the national average increasing by 73.3%. Relative to pre-pandemic levels, Valencia closed the year about 3.4% below 2019, whereas Spain as a whole remained roughly 4% below that level. These figures indicate a solid recovery in tourism alongside a broad-based rebound in consumption and local services.